Aluminium Market One-week Analysis: Changes in Production and Inventory Appeared Better
I. A week's industry-related information:
Spot prices of imported alumina ports continued to rise by 3% in January and September
Since September of this year, the spot price of alumina imported has been around RMB 5,200-5,300/ton, which is 3% higher than that in late August and 8.2% higher than that in late July of this year. The gap between the alumina port spot price and China Aluminum's alumina supply price has reached a new high since last year, the gap is nearly 900 yuan, and the imported alumina price is about 120% of Chinalco's offer.
2. Macquarie's study measures the domestic import and export trade conditions
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Non-custom processing Non-custom processing
Domestic demand export exports
Alumina cost
Ctrip Australia ($/t)
International Freight ($/t) 20 20 20
Import Tariff (%) 8% 8% 0%
Import Duties ($/t) 42 42 0
VAT (%) 17% 17% 0%
Value Added Tax ($/t) 115 115 0
Port Price ($/t)
Exchange rate 8.11 8.11 8.11
Port Price (RMB/t) 5,487 5,487 4,217
Port Fee (RMB/t) 80 80 80
Import Price (RMB/t) 5,567 5,567 4,297
Import Price (US$/t)
Shanghai Futures Exchange Price/LME Price% 33.8% 37.9% 29.3%
China Aluminum Price (RMB/t) 4,330
China Aluminum Price (US$/t) 534
Accounting for 26.3% of Shanghai Futures Exchange price
Aluminum profits
Alumina costs (imported RMB)
Conversion Cost (RMB)
5% export tax 0 734.15 734.15
Spot cost (RMB/t)
Spot Cost (US$/t)
Shanghai Futures Exchange Aluminum Price (RMB) 16460
Shanghai Futures Exchange Aluminum Price ($US/t) 2030
LME Price (RMB/t)
LME Price ($US/t) 1810 1810
"Profit t" (RMB/t) -2452 -4963 -2474
"Profit" ($US/t) -302 -612 -305
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Source: Macquarie Research, September 2005
The above calculations show that for a typical smelter, the export per ton of aluminum even under the processing license is about $300, and the loss for exporters who have not received the processing license is 5%. 600 US dollars, not to mention that with the advent of the end of the year, most licenses have expired.
Even if the conversion costs of some smelters are low, less than RMB 8,000 per ton, exports are more difficult to consider in terms of pure economic benefits.
Of course, if the price of spot alumina drops significantly, the aforementioned economic interests will change, and exports may become profitable again. In the following table, we show the breakeven point for exports under different spot alumina prices. The cost is still calculated using the data in the above table. It is estimated that only the price of alumina falling to 300 US dollars per ton is recognized (this is obviously Currently, it is impossible at all. China's aluminum export price is not less than $1,900 per ton; at the price of alumina, it is $400-500 per ton, and the export price of aluminum must reach $2,100-2,500 per ton to make a slight profit.
The break-even price of China Aluminum exports at different alumina spot prices
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Spot alumina price (CIF Australia) LME price required
200 1660
250 1790
300 1910
350 2040
400 2170
450 2300
500 2420
550 2550
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Source: Macquarie Research, September 2005
Although Chinese smelters are increasing their new production capacity, aluminum production in China will rise again next year. We believe that the economic interests of smelters are deteriorating and we are suffering from the bitter fruit of blind growth. China's aluminum exports will be constrained next year and beyond. In the short term, many manufacturers may have to continue production in order to survive. Even if they are in a loss state, of course, from a longer-term perspective, starting from the economic benefits, 5% of export taxes plus alumina processing will be cancelled and alumina supply will remain tight. Combined with restrictions, it will be difficult for Chinese producers to maintain the strong growth momentum of aluminum exports in recent years.
3. The IMF predicts that the global economy will maintain a rapid growth of 4.3% in the next two years
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday that the global economy will maintain a 4.3% rapid pace of growth this year and next, which is higher than the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. The IMF lowered US economic growth forecast to 3.5% this year. 4 At the time of the monthly report, the estimate was 3.6%; the IMF also lowered its estimate of the US economic growth rate for the next year from 3.6% to 3.3%. The IMF currently expects that the Chinese economy will grow by 9% in 2005, up from the 8.5 estimated in April. %. China's economic growth is expected to reach 8.2% in 2006, which is also higher than the 8% that the IMF expected in April.
4. The average daily production of primary aluminum in the western world in August decreased according to IAI statistics.
According to preliminary data from the International Aluminum Association (IAI), the daily average output of primary aluminum in the world fell to 64,700 tons in August 2005, from 64,800 tons in July to 61,200 tons in August last year. This is the first decline in the average daily production of primary aluminum in the Western world in the past 12 months.
According to the association, in August 2005 (31 days), the total output of primary aluminum was 2.005 million tons, 2.09 million tons in July (31 days) and 1.898 million tons in August last year.
5.Reuters statistics China has announced consumption of copper and aluminum from January to July
The following are monthly copper and aluminum production, imports and exports, and apparent consumption data (units/ton) for China since 2005:
July June May April March February
Refined copper production 205,269 212,400 222,000 194,700 187,100 186,300 173,700
Net imports 94,220 127,317 117,935 96,562 100,710 105,528 110,810
Apparent consumption of 299,489 339,717 339,935 291,262 287,810 291,828 284,510
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Primary aluminum production 626,250 601,100 599,200 574,900 568,400 557,000 531,600
Net exports 53,803 88,526 114,486 55,443 114,49 43,255 91,205
Apparent consumption 572,447 512,574 484,714 519,457 453,906 513,745 440,395
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Alumina production 727,548 680,000 701,300 653,900 682,700 593,600 634,500
Net imports 525,174 660,123 520,783 775,080 590,466 711,397 431,978
Apparent consumption of 1.253 million 1.34 million 12.22 million 1.429 million 12.173 million 1.305 million 1.066 million
Note: 1. The apparent consumption in this table refers to the output plus the net import or minus the net export.
2. Import and export volume data comes from the General Administration of Customs of China; production data comes from monthly statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
3. If the National Bureau of Statistics revise the data released last month, Reuters will also update it. (End)
Second, stock and inventory dynamics:
1, the main spot market price of electrolytic aluminum unit: yuan / ton
The main spot market offer 09-19 09-20 09-21 09-22 09-23
The Yangtze River colored A00 aluminum-16470-16490
2, weekly inventory changes: Unit: tons
Exchange 09-19 09-20 09-21 09-22 Newer inventory
LME +550 +500 -1125 -50 -3625 (515125)
SHFE Subtotal 49385,-14411; Futures 14113,-3380
III. Analysis of Aluminum Trends: (Do not listen to news, look at charts, and observe market changes objectively)
1, LME March composite aluminum:
After a consecutive 12-month increase, IAI’s August average daily output of primary aluminum in the western world fell for the first time in a month-on-month comparison. Although the rate was very slight, the pressure exerted on the supply chain was at least somewhat relieved. On the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the level of aluminum inventories dropped significantly, with sub-total inventory falling by 14,411 tons and registered warehouse receipts falling by 3,380 tons. This level of inventory changes is the highest in six consecutive months, indicating that market funds have improved expectations for supply pressure changes. In fact, China's primary aluminum output growth in August still maintained a high growth rate of nearly 20%, and the bell must be tied to the bell. The effect of China's supply regulation is still critical.
The dollar index continued to strengthen. After the political disputes in the German election, the cohesion of the euro appears to be further weakened. From the perspective of the potential for growth in the next year, the euro zone and Japan will be better than the two regions in the United States and the United States. There is also a need for fundamental amendments. In this case, the process of seeking the bottom of the dollar index is not smooth, and the strong upper range that can be seen recently is about 93 points.
For the main dominating factors of Lun aluminum futures price, the supply and demand changes tend to improve, the dollar factor is not easy to break the large range oscillation pattern, and the probability of Lun aluminum futures prices tends to be trending towards the market is relatively small. First, the possibility of rounding around the axial region in the near-term symmetrical fluctuations is first. Larger. Judging from the results of the recent copper trend and the balance of domestic primary aluminum exports, the first attempt to end the commodity futures in a flat manner always seems to have been tempted to rush out of the spire, and secondly, the price of aluminum futures is controlled by Chinese factors. Afterwards, there is still room to continue experimenting with new heights. These two points suggest that the price of London Aluminum futures has rewritten conditions at the high point of the year, but this is inconsistent with the market's expectation that the metal market environment will change. It seems that after the price of Aluminium's price has shifted upward in the past two years, the first line of 1,700 U.S. dollars has become a new watershed, and the symmetrical mid-axis zone of 1,800 U.S. dollars has become even more apparent. The excessive radical operation after deviating from the central zone is not appropriate.
On the daily level, last week, the price of aluminum aluminum futures fell below the level of 1800 US dollars was inhibited by the sharp rise in London copper, the weekend price continued to consolidate around the first line 1860 US dollars, London Alpha futures price of the structure of the general interval oscillations initially appeared. At the weekly level, Lun’s aluminum futures price was last week’s China Red, and it responded symmetrically to mid-July, and the traction of the medium-term moving average on the weekly line remained unchanged.
In terms of technical indicators, the daily track of BOLL-London aluminum futures price is slightly downwards, the opening is slightly reduced, and the Lun aluminum daily line is pulled from the lower rail to the middle track. On the weekend, it recovers from the middle track and is expected to maintain a flat file this week. Status and seek recovery of 1,860 U.S. dollars; the weekly track maintains a downward-poured state of convergence, the price recovers above the middle track, and there are signs of stabilization on the weekly line, but a confirmation of the flat file is still required.
KD - The daily K and D values ​​are pulled from below 20 to the strong zone. The swing strength is slightly insufficient, but it can maintain a slight rebound. The weekly line indicator is recovered at the 50 line and remains in the short-term.
Taken together, the symmetry pullback in the consolidation platform area formed last week in the London aluminium futures price in June and July shows that the conditions for the mid-year oscillations with a price of 1800 US dollars during the year have not been broken. The new primary aluminum production data shows that the average daily data of the western world has dropped for the first time in 12 months, while the domestic stocks of the Shanghai Aluminum Exchange have also experienced a sharp decline in six months, indicating that the phased supply pressure is expected to improve, and will continue in the near future. With the support of higher alumina prices, Lun Aluminum's future price will still be flat-rate consolidation around the 1860 US dollar to test the effectiveness of the pressure balance point.
2. SHFE Shanghai Aluminum Index:
Shanghai Aluminum Index futures prices rebounded after being supported on the daily track and lower tracks. The movements of the daily highs on the daily line for four consecutive days indicated that the driving force for the continuous fall of the Shanghai aluminum futures price was not sufficient. Although the spot price is still relatively low, the inventory and warehouse receipts have been significantly loosened, making the expectation of the consolidation of the pre-consolidation platform area in the previous period.
The daily turnover of the Shanghai Aluminum Index has been significantly enlarged during the continuous fall of last week. Although the daily turnover is still below the average line, the volume can rebound significantly with continuous opening highs. It shows that the Shanghai aluminum futures price will curb the recent downturn.
Judging from the weekly operation of the Shanghai Aluminum Index, the Shanghai Aluminum Index last week was the Little Red Star Line. The upper shadow was slightly longer, juxtaposed with the previous week's mid-black, and the short-term trend was not strong, and the period price would turn into a flat consolidation.
The technical status of Shanghai Aluminum Index is:
BOLL--The daily track was slightly declining, the upper and lower rails converged, and the Shanghai aluminum futures price rebounded from the lower rail at the daily line to the middle track. There was insufficient short-term power to fall. The weekly price of the Shanghai aluminum index on the weekly line was still in the lower track range. Down the track to close together, the price of traction in the middle of the track exists.
The KD--daily indicator was turned into the Jinchai after repeated entanglement in the first-line 20; the weekly indicators continued to be horizontally entangled in the weak areas, and the short-term trend maintained its consolidation.
In terms of open interest, last week's Shanghai aluminum positions began to rebound after forming a very low volume in the recent period. Compared with the change in the volume of warehouses this year, short-term opportunities for growth have been brewed after positions have been reduced to last week's low-level level.
In a nutshell, after the completion of the short-term follow-through of the aluminum market, the Shanghai aluminum futures price experienced a slight change. The volume position shows that the Shanghai aluminum futures price has the momentum to return to the previous consolidation area. The medium-term trend Shanghai Shanghai aluminum still suggests that the consolidation should be maintained. status.
3, Shanghai aluminum and London aluminum ratio:
Last week, the price ratio of Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum fell to 8.86. After the aluminum price rebounded, the Shanghai Aluminum futures price maintained its consolidation, which led to a downward improvement in the price ratio. The current parity level is at the upper edge of the reasonable price zone, and the pace at which the Shanghai aluminum futures price rebounds further will change to follow the changes in Lumian Aluminum.
Fourth, comprehensive conclusions and recommendations:
Last week, in terms of market sector information, the import alumina price continued to increase in September, while the IAI's average daily output of primary aluminum in the western world fell in a 12-month period, and the economic growth of major economies is expected to remain relatively stable. This has caused the recent fall in aluminum prices to be suppressed, and the market's expectations for late supply and demand pressures have improved.
Last week, the symmetry pullback in the consolidation platform area formed by the London aluminium futures price in June and July again showed that the conditions for the mid-year oscillations with a price of 1800 US dollars during the year have not been broken. The new primary aluminum production data shows that the average daily data of the western world has dropped for the first time in 12 months, while the domestic stocks of the Shanghai Aluminum Exchange have also experienced a sharp decline in six months, indicating that the phased supply pressure is expected to improve, and will continue in the near future. With the support of higher alumina prices, Lun Aluminum's future price will still be flat-rate consolidation around the 1860 US dollar to test the effectiveness of the pressure balance point.
After the completion of the short-term follow-up on the aluminum market, the Shanghai Aluminum Index futures price changed slightly. The volume position shows that the Shanghai aluminum futures have the momentum to return to the previous consolidation area, and the Shanghai Aluminum Group still suggests to maintain the consolidation status in the medium term.
Operational recommendations, market changes in production and demand are expected to improve, Shanghai aluminum futures price changes, short-term is expected to return to the previous consolidation area, it is recommended to buy back a small amount of short-term.
The above analysis suggestions are for reference only! Welcome to correct me!
Times Special Trades R&D Center
September 26, 2005
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