Analysis of the Development Trend of China's New Energy Industry in the "Twelfth Five Year Plan

As a new industry, the new energy industry has the characteristics of large investment, high technological content, and high product application costs. The development of the industry is influenced by multiple factors such as production factors, market factors, supporting industries, industrial competition, and the government.

Figure Influencing Factors of New Energy Industry Development Through the analysis of the development factors of the new energy industry, we can see that in the future, China's new energy industry will continue to develop steadily, and at the same time, it will be characterized by accelerated competition and increased access to industries, supporting industries and new energy industries. New technologies and new applications will become an important part of the industry exhibition.

1.1 Industrial scale grows steadily, and industrial development faces internal and external competition During the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, China's new energy industry develops rapidly. From 2005 to 2009, the annual average growth rate of solar cell output in China is as high as 123%; the average annual growth rate of wind power installed capacity is as high as 133 %. After experiencing the rapid development of the “11th Five-Year Plan”, China’s new energy industry will enter a stable period of development in the next three to five years, and the average annual growth rate of solar cell capacity is expected to reach about 50%; the growth rate of new wind power installations will remain at About 40%.

During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, competition in China's new energy industry will become increasingly fierce. For the wind power industry, at the beginning of 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission officially cancelled the policy requirement that “the localization rate of wind power equipment should reach over 70%”. This means that large-scale wind power companies with more competitive power abroad will be driven straight into China. Chinese companies need to face both domestic and international competition. For solar cell manufacturers, the long-term export-oriented photovoltaic industry has enabled domestic photovoltaic companies to compete in the international market. In the future, the photovoltaic industry will be over-competed by industry scale and product quality to technology, cost, and brand competition. For photovoltaic companies, to reduce the cost of power generation, large-scale, new technologies, and high quality are the only way for the development of enterprises.

1.2 The construction of industry access will be strengthened, and new energy standards will gradually become a system The system construction of industry access, technical standards, and testing standards is a powerful guarantee for the healthy development of the new energy industry. In the future, the Chinese government, associations, enterprises, and research institutions will become the main components of China's new energy industry standard system. The construction of a standard system may have catastrophic consequences for companies without core technical strength. Existing new energy companies need to adjust their business strategies in a timely manner, increase their investment in scientific research, and increase their technological level.

1.3 The speed of development of new energy supporting industries is expected to increase. The localization level is expected to increase. At present, more than 90% of China's new energy core supporting industries rely on imports. Domestic new energy industry supporting technologies, such as the core component technology of the wind power industry and the component packaging material manufacturing technology of the photovoltaic industry, have not been overcome by technical difficulties. As these supporting industries rely more on imports, they are characterized by high prices, high technical barriers, and a small number of companies. Therefore, the profit rate of the domestic new energy supporting industry is higher than the average profit rate of the existing new energy manufacturing industry. Driven by high profit margins, more enterprises and investment institutions will enter the field in the future, and the vigorous investment in the market will rapidly increase the nationalization level of China's new energy supporting industries.

1.4 New technologies, new applications, and market construction will continue to be the focus of development. The photovoltaic industry, wind power industry, and biomass energy industry will remain the focus of domestic new energy industry construction. The new technologies, new applications and market construction will run through every link in the development of each segmented industry. Taking the photovoltaic industry as an example, raw material polysilicon purification technology, solar cell manufacturing technology, thin-film solar energy technology, photovoltaic power generation system technology, and inverter technology for the photovoltaic industry; photovoltaic building integration, application of wind-solar hybrid systems, and promotion of photovoltaic market development The construction of power grid infrastructure and other contents may become the focus of future development of the photovoltaic industry. For the wind power industry, core parts manufacturing, large-scale wind turbine R&D, and offshore wind power technologies will be greatly developed.

China has unique resources and conditions for the development of new energy industries. At the same time, China has also initially possessed the "soft" and "hard" technological capabilities for the development of new energy industries. Under the dual drive of future Chinese government policy incentives and corporate innovation, China's new energy industry will surely enter the next period of steady development.