Coke prices may rise steadily in 2011
2018-05-13 14:01:06
In 2010, the price of coke showed a situation of rising first, and the rise in the second half of the year was inseparable from the reduction in production of coking enterprises and high production costs. The relevant research institutions in the industry believe that domestic coking companies are faced with several major difficulties this year. The first is the high coal prices, the high cost of coking enterprises, and the loss suffered. Second, due to the excessive expansion of coke capacity in previous years, the oversupply of coke is serious. The price of coke is sluggish. Thirdly, although the demand for coke in the world gradually recovers and the export of coke in China has increased by a large margin, it still has a far cry from 2009. Under all kinds of pressures, coking companies can only deal with production cuts. Actually, they do not substantially reduce production. Instead, many production capacities are idle and not put into production. As a result, coke production is generally relatively stable, but capacity utilization is at a low level. In short, coking enterprises cut production, and coke supply and demand tend to be widely balanced. On the whole, coke prices should continue to fluctuate upward next year.
Coke companies have increased their efforts to limit production. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's coke production reached 320 million tons from January to October this year, an increase of 11.6% over the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, coke production maintained a higher growth year-on-year. In the second half of the year, the monthly production level basically fell below 32 million tons, and the production limit of enterprises was significantly increased. In July and September, coke production showed negative growth. The output in August and October was basically the same as last year. From the perspective of regional conditions, Shanxi Province still firmly occupies the top spot in coke production, followed by Hebei, Shandong, and Henan. From January to October, the coke production of these four provinces accounted for 21.65%, 13.32%, 8.7%, and 6.6% of the national output, totaling more than 50%. Although the proportion of coke production in these four provinces is relatively high, but from the perspective of the distribution of their internal companies, the number of companies is large, the industry is relatively decentralized, and there are many small businesses, so the industry concentration of the coke industry needs to be improved.
The coke export has made a big improvement. In the first quarter of 2010, China’s exports of coke were relatively normal, basically maintaining its low level in 2009. From the second quarter, coke exports jumped, and the monthly export volume in July even reached 590,000 tons, which exceeded the total export volume in 2009. From January to October 2010, China exported 2.64 million tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 534%. However, this export volume was only 1/5 of that in 2008. Therefore, coke production mainly depends on the domestic market to digest.
At the same time, China also has a small amount of coke imports. From January to October, China imported 92,726 tons of coke, mainly imported from Mongolia, accounting for 99.4% of the total. The main application of coke is the steel industry. The amount of coke consumed in the Chinese steel industry accounts for about 80% of the coke production, while coke in developed countries accounts for about 90% to 95% of the total output of the steel industry. According to 80%, the consumption of coke in China from January to October is 2.8125 billion tons. According to the above output and export, China's coke supply from January to October is 317 million tons, and the supply surplus is about 36 million tons. Therefore, the coking enterprises' production reduction action should continue to advance, and the state must also accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and increase industrial concentration. The pace of the degree.
The price of coke was first suppressed and then increased. In the first half of 2010, prices have been fluctuating, and even after entering May, it has been a further decline. The drop in coke prices in the first half of the year was further dragged down by the lower steel prices. In the second half of the year, domestic steel prices began to oscillate upwards, and the center of gravity continued to increase. It also gave support to coke prices, and coke prices oscillated upwards. Due to high coal prices, coking industry costs have risen since 2010, and most companies have fallen into a quagmire of losses. However, this also supports coke prices and limits their downside. As a result, although the price of coke rises and falls, the price is always higher than the price. Year 2009. In general, however, the rise in coke prices cannot keep pace with the rise in coal prices. The price of coke is squeezed by both ends of the upstream and downstream, upstream costs are rising, downstream demand is weak, steel mills pass on cost pressures, and coking companies survive in the cracks.
The future trend of coke prices depends on costs, supply and demand. The industry believes that the price of coke may rise steadily next year will depend on three factors: cost, supply and demand.
First, from the perspective of cost, the main raw material for coke production is coal. Since the beginning of this year, China's coal prices have been high, and there is no room for downside coal prices. At present, most of China's coal resources and coal companies are controlled by local governments, and some coal provinces often raise coal prices for local interests. The supply side was limited due to weather disasters, accidents and other reasons. The poor transport capacity of railways further pushed up coal prices. At the same time, international coal prices have also risen step by step. From next year, China will enter the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The president of the China Coal Industry Association recently stated that it is expected that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the increase in China’s coal production will fall back, and the increase in coal production will be controlled at an average annual increase of about 100 million tons, while in the past “11. During the planning period, the average annual increase in coal production exceeded 200 million tons. At the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s coal production reached 3.2 billion tons, which exceeded the planned 400 million tons. In light of this, by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, coal production will be controlled at 3.7 billion to 3.8 billion tons. As China's coal production capacity grows too fast, the focus of the coal industry in the next five years will be to adjust the structure and control the excessive growth of the total coal volume. Reorganization of coal and electricity and energy conservation and emission reduction will also be an important task for the coal industry. Therefore, under a combination of government monopolies, limited supply growth, and restructuring and energy-saving emission reductions, coal prices are expected to remain firm and coke production costs may continue to rise.
Secondly, from the perspective of supply, the domestic coke has a large overcapacity, which is indeed a hidden danger in the coke market. Whether or not coking enterprises can continue to restrict production will be an important factor affecting the supply of coke. At the same time, the elimination of backward production capacity and the restriction of new production capacity in the coke industry will also affect the coke market. It is expected that in the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the pace of eliminating outdated production capacity will accelerate, and energy conservation and emission reduction may also become the norm. The extent to which coke production capacity can expand after the market is limited. From the current situation, it is expected that the coking enterprises will continue to restrict production for some time in the future, because most coking enterprises have not yet come out of the quagmire of losses, and the work of energy saving and emission reduction is continuing to advance. This is expected to improve the coke market from the supply side.
Third, from the demand level, the demand for coke is mainly concentrated in the steel market, so the demand for the steel market will be an important determinant of coke price. Although the current steel demand is in a seasonal dull period, and due to the restrictions of energy conservation and emission reduction, some steel mills are forced to cut production, which also reduces the demand for coke, but from a little longer time point of view, the future of steel consumption demand is still Rigid. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" may bring about a lot of new steel demand growth points, such as the government-led infrastructure, the construction of high-speed railways, and so on. Therefore, most people in the industry are optimistic about the future consumer demand for coke. The Dalian Commodity Exchange is about to introduce coke**, which will bring new opportunities and challenges to the entire coke industry. Perhaps it will speed up the industry's differentiation and survival of the fittest and bring about new developments in the industry.
Coke companies have increased their efforts to limit production. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's coke production reached 320 million tons from January to October this year, an increase of 11.6% over the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, coke production maintained a higher growth year-on-year. In the second half of the year, the monthly production level basically fell below 32 million tons, and the production limit of enterprises was significantly increased. In July and September, coke production showed negative growth. The output in August and October was basically the same as last year. From the perspective of regional conditions, Shanxi Province still firmly occupies the top spot in coke production, followed by Hebei, Shandong, and Henan. From January to October, the coke production of these four provinces accounted for 21.65%, 13.32%, 8.7%, and 6.6% of the national output, totaling more than 50%. Although the proportion of coke production in these four provinces is relatively high, but from the perspective of the distribution of their internal companies, the number of companies is large, the industry is relatively decentralized, and there are many small businesses, so the industry concentration of the coke industry needs to be improved.
The coke export has made a big improvement. In the first quarter of 2010, China’s exports of coke were relatively normal, basically maintaining its low level in 2009. From the second quarter, coke exports jumped, and the monthly export volume in July even reached 590,000 tons, which exceeded the total export volume in 2009. From January to October 2010, China exported 2.64 million tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 534%. However, this export volume was only 1/5 of that in 2008. Therefore, coke production mainly depends on the domestic market to digest.
At the same time, China also has a small amount of coke imports. From January to October, China imported 92,726 tons of coke, mainly imported from Mongolia, accounting for 99.4% of the total. The main application of coke is the steel industry. The amount of coke consumed in the Chinese steel industry accounts for about 80% of the coke production, while coke in developed countries accounts for about 90% to 95% of the total output of the steel industry. According to 80%, the consumption of coke in China from January to October is 2.8125 billion tons. According to the above output and export, China's coke supply from January to October is 317 million tons, and the supply surplus is about 36 million tons. Therefore, the coking enterprises' production reduction action should continue to advance, and the state must also accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and increase industrial concentration. The pace of the degree.
The price of coke was first suppressed and then increased. In the first half of 2010, prices have been fluctuating, and even after entering May, it has been a further decline. The drop in coke prices in the first half of the year was further dragged down by the lower steel prices. In the second half of the year, domestic steel prices began to oscillate upwards, and the center of gravity continued to increase. It also gave support to coke prices, and coke prices oscillated upwards. Due to high coal prices, coking industry costs have risen since 2010, and most companies have fallen into a quagmire of losses. However, this also supports coke prices and limits their downside. As a result, although the price of coke rises and falls, the price is always higher than the price. Year 2009. In general, however, the rise in coke prices cannot keep pace with the rise in coal prices. The price of coke is squeezed by both ends of the upstream and downstream, upstream costs are rising, downstream demand is weak, steel mills pass on cost pressures, and coking companies survive in the cracks.
The future trend of coke prices depends on costs, supply and demand. The industry believes that the price of coke may rise steadily next year will depend on three factors: cost, supply and demand.
First, from the perspective of cost, the main raw material for coke production is coal. Since the beginning of this year, China's coal prices have been high, and there is no room for downside coal prices. At present, most of China's coal resources and coal companies are controlled by local governments, and some coal provinces often raise coal prices for local interests. The supply side was limited due to weather disasters, accidents and other reasons. The poor transport capacity of railways further pushed up coal prices. At the same time, international coal prices have also risen step by step. From next year, China will enter the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The president of the China Coal Industry Association recently stated that it is expected that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the increase in China’s coal production will fall back, and the increase in coal production will be controlled at an average annual increase of about 100 million tons, while in the past “11. During the planning period, the average annual increase in coal production exceeded 200 million tons. At the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s coal production reached 3.2 billion tons, which exceeded the planned 400 million tons. In light of this, by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, coal production will be controlled at 3.7 billion to 3.8 billion tons. As China's coal production capacity grows too fast, the focus of the coal industry in the next five years will be to adjust the structure and control the excessive growth of the total coal volume. Reorganization of coal and electricity and energy conservation and emission reduction will also be an important task for the coal industry. Therefore, under a combination of government monopolies, limited supply growth, and restructuring and energy-saving emission reductions, coal prices are expected to remain firm and coke production costs may continue to rise.
Secondly, from the perspective of supply, the domestic coke has a large overcapacity, which is indeed a hidden danger in the coke market. Whether or not coking enterprises can continue to restrict production will be an important factor affecting the supply of coke. At the same time, the elimination of backward production capacity and the restriction of new production capacity in the coke industry will also affect the coke market. It is expected that in the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the pace of eliminating outdated production capacity will accelerate, and energy conservation and emission reduction may also become the norm. The extent to which coke production capacity can expand after the market is limited. From the current situation, it is expected that the coking enterprises will continue to restrict production for some time in the future, because most coking enterprises have not yet come out of the quagmire of losses, and the work of energy saving and emission reduction is continuing to advance. This is expected to improve the coke market from the supply side.
Third, from the demand level, the demand for coke is mainly concentrated in the steel market, so the demand for the steel market will be an important determinant of coke price. Although the current steel demand is in a seasonal dull period, and due to the restrictions of energy conservation and emission reduction, some steel mills are forced to cut production, which also reduces the demand for coke, but from a little longer time point of view, the future of steel consumption demand is still Rigid. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" may bring about a lot of new steel demand growth points, such as the government-led infrastructure, the construction of high-speed railways, and so on. Therefore, most people in the industry are optimistic about the future consumer demand for coke. The Dalian Commodity Exchange is about to introduce coke**, which will bring new opportunities and challenges to the entire coke industry. Perhaps it will speed up the industry's differentiation and survival of the fittest and bring about new developments in the industry.