The metallurgical coal market will remain tight in 2011
2018-05-24 23:40:41
Near the end of the year, the domestic coal market was in the period from October to December under the influence of many factors such as the phased reduction of overall supply, the public’s anticipation of “Millennium’s extreme cold†and the adverse effects of energy conservation and emission reduction on supply and demand. Show the stage of supply and demand tension, the end of the coal consumer prices also out of a sharp rise in the market.
Looking back at the 2010 overall coal market, it is mainly characterized by stable operation, with adjustments fluctuating during the year. 5500 kcal of Shanxi excellent mixed thermal coal from the beginning of the price of 780 yuan / t ~ 790 yuan / t (Qinghuangdao closing price) rose to the current 795 yuan / t ~ 805 yuan / t, an increase of 15 yuan / t; with the overall market On the upward adjustment, the price of the planned coal price for metallurgical coal mines rose only during the period from 1st quarter to 2nd quarter, which was a price increase of 170 yuan/t to 300 yuan/t from 2009 prices. Although there were fluctuations in the steel market during the period from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter, adjustments were made. The perturbation factors, but the metallurgical coal market has always maintained a "high viscosity" characteristics, indicating that the steel industry's huge demand scale and metallurgical coal supply is insufficient, and in the near future is still a pair of contradictions that are not well reconciled.
Analyze and predict that in 2011 the metallurgical coal market will not see big changes in the ratio of coal consumption in the country’s total energy consumption as the total domestic economy expands year by year. The depletion of coal mining resources will surely lead to year-by-year coal prices. rise. The rise in coal prices in the coming period will be the norm.
The key factor in determining market trends lies in the relationship between supply and demand. Judging from the operating conditions of the metallurgical coal market, there are still 30 million to 50 million tons of coking coal, especially high-quality cohesive coking coal and fat coal, after eliminating domestic supply. In 2009, China imported 35 million tons of coking coal from abroad. In the first ten months of 2010, China imported a total of 137.7 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 40.13 million tons. It is expected that imports will reach 167 million tons in the year, an increase of 42 million tons from last year. From January to September 2010, China imported 69.5 million tons of thermal coal, imported 33.5 million tons of coking coal, and imported 19.6 million tons of anthracite, and it is expected to import 45 million tons of coking coal, an increase of about 10 million tons from last year, an increase of 28.6 percent. %.
In fact, the reasons for the tight supply and demand of strong coking coking coal are related to the shortage of supply on the one hand; on the other hand, the smelting blast furnace volume of iron and steel enterprises tends to grow in size, and the quality requirements of blast furnace production on metallurgical coke (cold and heat strength, etc.) Increasingly, the matching ratio of coking coal to coking coal is increasingly strict. Judging from the national coke production status, the output of domestic metallurgical coke will reach 380 million tons in 2010. According to the coal consumption coefficient of 1.4t:1t, the overall demand for coking coal is 3.8×1.4= 532 million tons, which requires strong adhesion. Coking coal coking coal 5.32 × 0.65 = 350 million t, and domestic production may only reach about 300 million t, and the retained reserves show a trend of decline year by year, there is a gap between supply and demand is inevitable. In addition, the gradual increase in the ratio of blast furnace injection in recent years has also led to a gradual transition to a tighter market for blast furnace coal injection. The large-scale blast furnace capacity aims to save energy and reduce fuel consumption, and to reduce the coke ratio to increase the coal ratio. At this stage, the fuel ratio of blast furnaces with a volume of 3000 m3 or more is generally controlled at a level below 500 kg/t. According to rough calculations, the current national market capacity of blast furnace coal injection is roughly between 50 million t/a and 60 million t/a. With the increase of coal injection ratio, there is a trend of 100 million t/year.
Judgment on the Future Metallurgical Coal Market: In general, the metallurgical coal market will maintain a tight balance in 2011, but due to the influence of macroeconomic factors, the volatility of the steel market will intensify, and external factors will become more complex and changeable.
1) Changes in steel production caused by fluctuations in the steel market directly affect the coking coal market. However, due to the tight supply and demand situation in the coking coal market, there is a high probability that coking coal prices will remain “sticky†during the steel market fluctuations. In addition, if domestic pig iron production is maintained at a level of around 600 million tons, the coke consumption in the iron and steel industry will reach about 300 million tons, and the demand for coking coal will be 420 million tons, of which foreign imports will reach 10% or higher. The fact that many years of market operation shows that domestic coking coal production under the premise of serious shrinkage of recoverable reserves is unlikely to achieve growth.
2) The external mergers and acquisitions of major coal companies will result in large-scale release of production capacity by coal mines. There will be many variables in the next two to three years. It is foreseeable that under the situation of the country advocating energy-saving and emission-reduction, the overall growth rate of coal production in the country is likely to slow down significantly and the probability of price decline is very small.
3) The transformation of railway lines across the country and the construction of high-speed railways will ease the tension in railway transportation capacity in a certain period of time. The deterrent effect of insufficient rail transport on coal supply and demand will be further weakened, and the situation of tight coal supply and demand is expected to change.
4) The scale of demand for metallurgical coal in the long-term future may be affected by the declining iron-steel ratio in the domestic steel industry. In 2009, the domestic steel-to-steel ratio was 0.97. With the rapid growth of domestic steel accumulation, the use of scrap and other resources for electric furnace steelmaking will replace some of the pig iron smelting capacity. The reduction in pig iron production will reduce the demand for metallurgical coal. However, the slow decline in the iron-steel ratio is not expected to have a significant impact on the metallurgical coal market.
Looking back at the 2010 overall coal market, it is mainly characterized by stable operation, with adjustments fluctuating during the year. 5500 kcal of Shanxi excellent mixed thermal coal from the beginning of the price of 780 yuan / t ~ 790 yuan / t (Qinghuangdao closing price) rose to the current 795 yuan / t ~ 805 yuan / t, an increase of 15 yuan / t; with the overall market On the upward adjustment, the price of the planned coal price for metallurgical coal mines rose only during the period from 1st quarter to 2nd quarter, which was a price increase of 170 yuan/t to 300 yuan/t from 2009 prices. Although there were fluctuations in the steel market during the period from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter, adjustments were made. The perturbation factors, but the metallurgical coal market has always maintained a "high viscosity" characteristics, indicating that the steel industry's huge demand scale and metallurgical coal supply is insufficient, and in the near future is still a pair of contradictions that are not well reconciled.
Analyze and predict that in 2011 the metallurgical coal market will not see big changes in the ratio of coal consumption in the country’s total energy consumption as the total domestic economy expands year by year. The depletion of coal mining resources will surely lead to year-by-year coal prices. rise. The rise in coal prices in the coming period will be the norm.
The key factor in determining market trends lies in the relationship between supply and demand. Judging from the operating conditions of the metallurgical coal market, there are still 30 million to 50 million tons of coking coal, especially high-quality cohesive coking coal and fat coal, after eliminating domestic supply. In 2009, China imported 35 million tons of coking coal from abroad. In the first ten months of 2010, China imported a total of 137.7 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 40.13 million tons. It is expected that imports will reach 167 million tons in the year, an increase of 42 million tons from last year. From January to September 2010, China imported 69.5 million tons of thermal coal, imported 33.5 million tons of coking coal, and imported 19.6 million tons of anthracite, and it is expected to import 45 million tons of coking coal, an increase of about 10 million tons from last year, an increase of 28.6 percent. %.
In fact, the reasons for the tight supply and demand of strong coking coking coal are related to the shortage of supply on the one hand; on the other hand, the smelting blast furnace volume of iron and steel enterprises tends to grow in size, and the quality requirements of blast furnace production on metallurgical coke (cold and heat strength, etc.) Increasingly, the matching ratio of coking coal to coking coal is increasingly strict. Judging from the national coke production status, the output of domestic metallurgical coke will reach 380 million tons in 2010. According to the coal consumption coefficient of 1.4t:1t, the overall demand for coking coal is 3.8×1.4= 532 million tons, which requires strong adhesion. Coking coal coking coal 5.32 × 0.65 = 350 million t, and domestic production may only reach about 300 million t, and the retained reserves show a trend of decline year by year, there is a gap between supply and demand is inevitable. In addition, the gradual increase in the ratio of blast furnace injection in recent years has also led to a gradual transition to a tighter market for blast furnace coal injection. The large-scale blast furnace capacity aims to save energy and reduce fuel consumption, and to reduce the coke ratio to increase the coal ratio. At this stage, the fuel ratio of blast furnaces with a volume of 3000 m3 or more is generally controlled at a level below 500 kg/t. According to rough calculations, the current national market capacity of blast furnace coal injection is roughly between 50 million t/a and 60 million t/a. With the increase of coal injection ratio, there is a trend of 100 million t/year.
Judgment on the Future Metallurgical Coal Market: In general, the metallurgical coal market will maintain a tight balance in 2011, but due to the influence of macroeconomic factors, the volatility of the steel market will intensify, and external factors will become more complex and changeable.
1) Changes in steel production caused by fluctuations in the steel market directly affect the coking coal market. However, due to the tight supply and demand situation in the coking coal market, there is a high probability that coking coal prices will remain “sticky†during the steel market fluctuations. In addition, if domestic pig iron production is maintained at a level of around 600 million tons, the coke consumption in the iron and steel industry will reach about 300 million tons, and the demand for coking coal will be 420 million tons, of which foreign imports will reach 10% or higher. The fact that many years of market operation shows that domestic coking coal production under the premise of serious shrinkage of recoverable reserves is unlikely to achieve growth.
2) The external mergers and acquisitions of major coal companies will result in large-scale release of production capacity by coal mines. There will be many variables in the next two to three years. It is foreseeable that under the situation of the country advocating energy-saving and emission-reduction, the overall growth rate of coal production in the country is likely to slow down significantly and the probability of price decline is very small.
3) The transformation of railway lines across the country and the construction of high-speed railways will ease the tension in railway transportation capacity in a certain period of time. The deterrent effect of insufficient rail transport on coal supply and demand will be further weakened, and the situation of tight coal supply and demand is expected to change.
4) The scale of demand for metallurgical coal in the long-term future may be affected by the declining iron-steel ratio in the domestic steel industry. In 2009, the domestic steel-to-steel ratio was 0.97. With the rapid growth of domestic steel accumulation, the use of scrap and other resources for electric furnace steelmaking will replace some of the pig iron smelting capacity. The reduction in pig iron production will reduce the demand for metallurgical coal. However, the slow decline in the iron-steel ratio is not expected to have a significant impact on the metallurgical coal market.