The rate of return on assets of power companies is obviously low

51.7% After the initial season adjustment, the total profit of the power industry in the third quarter increased 51.7% year-on-year

According to the report of China's electricity industry climate index just published by the newspaper, after a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total profit of the power industry in the third quarter was 111.42 billion yuan, an increase of 51.7% year-on-year. The sales margin was 2.2 higher than the average of 5.5% in all industries. Percentile points, the industry-wide profitability is in continuous improvement.

Since last year, the power industry has gradually shaken off the plight of a full-scale loss in the past. The total profit of the industry has continued to increase, and the sales profit rate has steadily increased. Why does the profitability of the power industry have a "roller coaster" change? Where is the future profit point of the power industry?

The profit mainly comes from the thermal power sector

Under the dual benefits of electricity growth and coal price decline, thermal power companies' gross profit margins have increased significantly, and profits have grown substantially. The days of the power industry are getting better and better. In the third quarter, the economic sentiment index of China Energy Industry was 99.9 points, up 0.3 points from the previous quarter, which was the fourth consecutive quarter of rising trend of the electric power industry.

According to the major financial indicators of industrial enterprises above designated size announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the main business income from electricity and heat production and supply reached 405.49 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. . The profit of main activities was 239.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.7%. Although the year-on-year growth rate was down by 18.1 percentage points from the first half of the year, the growth rate was still at a relatively high level.

Peng Quangang, researcher of China Merchants Securities chief electric power environmental protection and public utilities, believes that the continuous improvement of the operating status of the power industry has a certain relationship with the relatively low base year-on-year, but more importantly, it is influenced by the trend of the macro economy.

In the third quarter, the macro-economy showed a trend of steady increase and rise, GDP growth rate rose to 7.8%, and the year-on-year growth was 0.2 percentage points higher than the first half year. The recovery of the macro economy has led to the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the entire society. In the first nine months of this year, the total electricity consumption of the entire society was 3,945,200 million kwh, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and an acceleration of 2.9 percentage points from the first quarter.

The growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society continued to accelerate, laying the foundation for improving the profitability of the power industry. Of course, the thermal power sector has also made a "significant contribution" to the continuous improvement of the profitability of the power industry. Since last year, the coal industry has ended its “golden decade” period of development, and coal prices have “slipped”. As of the end of the third quarter, the decline in coal prices continued. At the end of September, the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal water price index for the Bohai Bay Bohai Sea fell to 520 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 65 yuan/ton from the beginning of July.

The decline in coal prices has, to a large extent, made it profitable for thermal power generation. In the third quarter, due to the increase in electricity demand caused by high-temperature weather throughout the country and the increased drought in some areas, the growth rate of thermal power generation showed a trend of year-on-year growth, thermal power generation utilization hours increased by 77 hours year-on-year, and electricity generation increased by 15% year-on-year.

"With the double benefits of electricity and coal prices, thermal power companies' gross margins have increased significantly, and profits have increased substantially," Peng Quangang said.

A statistical data shows that as of October 30, a total of 47 home appliance companies released the third quarterly report. Among them, there are 8 companies with losses, and the remaining 39 companies all make profits, while the 8 companies with losses are mainly thermoelectric and hydropower companies.

The return on assets is obviously low

In the first nine months of this year, the five major power generation groups realized profits of more than 50 billion yuan. Compared with the total assets of 3.5 trillion yuan, the return on assets was clearly at a relatively low level. This year, the main business revenue growth rate of the power industry has continued to maintain Accelerate the situation. The soaring profits of the power industry have caused concern from all walks of life. Some people think that the current power profit mainly comes from the profit space that has been vacated by the continued decline in coal prices. Coal-fired electricity linkage should be started, and electricity prices should be lowered accordingly.

In the eyes of power companies, despite the economic development in the industry, the current state of profitability is still at a relatively low level. Moreover, the timing of coal-electricity linkage has not actually arrived.

Ouyang Changyu, deputy secretary-general of the China Electricity Council, analyzed in an interview that according to CEC's survey summary data, in the first 9 months of this year, the five major power generation groups realized profits of more than 50 billion yuan, and the profitability looks optimistic, but if Compared with the total assets of 3.5 trillion yuan, the return on assets is obviously at a relatively low level. Moreover, among the five major groups, there are still 125 thermal power companies that have losses at various levels, with a loss of 26.4%. If they are expanded to other thermal power companies in the industry, the industry may face a greater loss.

Qiu Shizhe, a researcher in the coal industry of China Investment Advisors, believes that the current power industry’s operating income and main business profits have increased rapidly year-on-year. In a sense, it is a kind of cover for sustained losses in the industry in previous years. The power industry is fundamental. In the energy industry, in the process of sustained macroeconomic development, it is impossible to “lose losses at a single loss” in the long term.

Another issue that merits attention is that, despite the fact that the profit growth of the power industry has remained at a relatively high level, the issue of single profitability has gradually emerged. Qiu Xizhe said that this round of profit recovery in the electric power industry is not a positive effect of energy structure adjustment and optimization, but mainly depends on the continuous decline in coal prices. Therefore, whether the current profitability of the electric power industry can maintain its sustainability remains to be further observed.

The relevant experts even bluntly stated that once the coal-fired linkage window opens, or the coal price rebounds retaliated, the power industry will return to a loss situation.

The opinions of the aforementioned experts are not unfounded. In 2011, the coal industry ushered in the "last wave of prices" for a decade of gold. Coal prices have been soaring. Thermal power companies have lost 60% of their losses from the previous year, resulting in losses for the entire power industry. However, last year, in the context of coal prices “slugging down”, the electric power industry ushered in the spring of performance growth.

Avoiding big ups and downs

At present, the power companies should still regard increasing profits and stabilizing profit growth as important tasks. The problem of weak profitability of the industry and a relatively single profit model remains to be solved. The rise in coal prices will cause power companies to lose money. The decline in coal prices will make electricity companies lose their days. Better than. This seems to have become the norm in the coal-electricity relationship, and it has also led to the ups and downs of the profits of the power industry.

Liu Shunda, chairman of the state-owned key large-scale enterprise supervisory board, once wrote that the profit of China’s five major power generation groups has so far been “roller coaster”, which has increased 2.7-fold. In the first eight months, the total profit of the five major power generation groups was 49.04 billion yuan. The same period last year was only 13.14 billion yuan.

The profitability of the power industry has undergone dramatic ups and downs. Although it is related to coal and electricity linkages and other policy factors, it also profoundly reflects the current industry-wide profitability is not strong and the profit model is relatively single.

Qiu Xizhe analyzed that for the electric power industry, it is obviously unrealistic to expect the realization of profit targets to fluctuate coal prices. From the perspective of the actual development of the industry, the era in which the power industry relies on investment growth and scale expansion to achieve profit growth is gone forever. Power companies should pay attention to rectifying internal business, optimize corporate business management, and enhance their core competitiveness.

“Don’t forget to hurt.” Ouyang Changyu said that the profitability of the top five power generation companies seems to have improved. However, due to a long period of time for thermal power companies to maintain losses, there are more historical debts in coal-fired linkage, and the corporate debt ratio remains Higher, return on assets is also at a lower level. Under this circumstance, power companies should still regard increasing profits and stabilizing profit growth as an important task, and strive to avoid large fluctuations in profits.

Relevant experts pointed out that power companies should pay more attention to the development of new and renewable energy sources, and accelerate the pace of development of new energy resources with emphasis, steps, and practical considerations, especially in accordance with the intensity of state financial subsidies and the ability to absorb the entire power system. Accelerate the development of wind power and solar power generation, pay more attention to the development of distributed energy, and make new energy an important way for power companies to improve profitability.

Ouyang Changyu suggested that at present, the growth of investment in the power industry has been significantly accelerated. It is necessary to scientifically guide the investment in the power industry and shift the investment direction from simple expansion of production capacity to optimization of the structure.

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