Wind power industry's current limit has been further reduced
Reporter Li Xue China's wind power industry has experienced rapid growth for five consecutive years. The upper limit has been exceeded. The bottleneck problem of wind power grid-connected peak shaving has been difficult to solve for a time. The overcapacity of wind turbine equipment and the suspension of purchase subsidies for wind power have been aggravated and the wind power industry has increased. The speed will drop further and profitability will be difficult.
To this end, on June 10, Ping An Securities analyst Dou Zeyun released a research report, giving the wind power industry a "neutral" rating for the first time.
According to the latest estimates from the Wind Energy Solar Resource Assessment Center of the National Meteorological Administration, the potential development of wind power in China is around 200 million kilowatts. China's 2020 wind power plan installation target is 150 million kilowatts. As of 2010, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power is 44.73 million kilowatts, which means that if we calculate according to the 2020 plan installed target, the average annual new installed capacity of wind power will increase in the next 10 years. Only 10 million kilowatts. Ping An Securities Research reported that this is much lower than the new installed capacity of 16 million kilowatts in 2010. Although the wind power industry will complete most of its installation targets during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, according to the above data, there is limited room for growth in the wind power industry, and the growth rate will further decline.
Not only that, the main bottleneck in the development of the wind power industry - grid connection and peaking problems - is still difficult to solve for the time being, and this day's indecision will continue to constrain the development of the industry.
In addition, the manufacturing capacity of wind turbines in 2011 is still in excess, and consolidation of the industry is underway. Fan prices are expected to decline further. According to data from Ping An Securities Research, it is expected that the total capacity of the domestic machine manufacturers will reach 29GW in 2011, while the demand is only 15GW-18GW, and excess capacity will still be difficult to absorb. In the current market environment that lacks third-party independent testing agencies, fierce competition caused by excess capacity will inevitably cause price wars, which will lead to further decline in fan prices in 2011.
To make matters worse, media reports recently reported that China will cancel wind power procurement subsidies. Although this statement was partially denied by the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the United States’ attitude toward the export interest of wind turbines has become increasingly tough but it is an indisputable fact.
In 2008, to support the new energy industry, the Ministry of Finance promulgated the Interim Measures for the Administration of Special Funds for the Industrialization of Wind Power Generation Equipment (hereinafter referred to as the Measures). The "Measures" stipulates that for the first 50 MW-class wind turbines that meet the supporting conditions, subsidies will be granted at the rate of 600 yuan / kW. In this subsidy standard, complete machine manufacturing companies and key component manufacturing companies each account for 50%. After the "Measures" came out, after more than three years of experience, China's wind power equipment companies have become increasingly successful. The international demand for China to cancel subsidies for wind power purchases has also been shaken.
Ping An Securities believes that parts suppliers will suffer the most if wind power purchase subsidies stop. In addition to the loss of the wind turbine purchase subsidy, the competition pressure of the parts suppliers market will also increase because the Chinese parts suppliers will lose the biggest price advantage in the overseas market and the competition pressure with foreign companies will increase sharply. . At the same time, the overall manufacturer's profit will also decline, but the margin is relatively small. Taking Goldwind as an example, in 2010, the company's wind power special fund subsidy was 35.5 million yuan, accounting for 1.66% of the net profit. Xiangdian's special wind power subsidy accounted for 1.6% of net profit.
However, Ping An Securities Research reported that, although the domestic market is still in turmoil, but the whole manufacturer's overseas market expansion is worth the wait. From a geographical point of view, the fastest growing wind power is in Europe, followed by North America. Compared with wind turbines in these places, wind turbines produced in China have a strong price advantage. At present, the proportion of domestic turbine exporter fan exports is still very low. With the accumulation of overseas market supply experience and the improvement of quality, Chinese complete machine manufacturers will gradually participate in international competition.