High-speed growth of photovoltaics is still limited

In 2015, the new energy industry will be a few happy families. According to Wang Xiaokun, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, the photovoltaic industry will maintain rapid growth in 2015, but the wind power industry is more worrying.

Photovoltaic still maintains rapid growth

Chen Kangping, the president of Jinke Energy Co., Ltd., the representative of the People's Republic of China, said in an interview with reporters that with the wide application of photovoltaics, it has been confirmed that PV has been promoted to the national energy strategy and has received great attention and support from all walks of life and governments. The goal of future reforms is to establish a sustainable economic development model that allows the coordinated development of economy, ecology, and energy.

In 2014, the growth rate of the global photovoltaic market picked up. The focus of the market shifts to the East. Markets represented by China, Japan, and the United States, driven by favorable policies, have increased their target installed capacity. While Europe continues to decline in installed capacity, the British market has risen in contrarian conditions and for the first time surpassed Germany as Europe’s dominant player. In Asia Pacific, except for China’s continued rapid growth, the Indian market and Thailand will also develop rapidly next year. The United States continues to increase in volume, similar to China, and the distributed market will gradually surpass the ground station. Coupled with the blessing of emerging markets such as Chile, Brazil, and South Africa, the global installed capacity in 2015 is expected to continue growing at a positive rate of around 55 GW.

According to the data from the National Energy Administration, in 2014, the entire photovoltaic industry in China showed a steady, steady, and orderly development. The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the year was 28.05 million kilowatts, an increase of 60% year-on-year, of which 23.38 million kilowatts were photovoltaic power stations. Distributed 4.67 million kilowatts. Annual photovoltaic generation capacity is approximately 25 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of more than 200% year-on-year.

Chen Kangping stated that from the global demand of 1GW in 2004 to the scale of 45GW in 2014, the annual growth rate of photovoltaic will exceed 20%, surpassing the law of any industry development and even surpassing the development of any other form of new energy. Therefore, it is believed that PV will lead the development of new energy in the future.

"In 2015, global installed capacity is expected to grow positively to reach about 55 GW." Chen Kangping predicts that from the rebound of the manufacturing industry in 2014, the scale will recover, the volume will increase in 2015, the price will stabilize, and the leading companies will lock in good profitability. . As for the technical route, from the perspective of commercialization, the development of photovoltaic industry technology will take into account the trend of high efficiency and low cost.

The worry of rapid growth

Although the domestic photovoltaic industry is booming, the development of photovoltaics is still relatively limited. Wang Xiaokun told the "China Enterprise News" reporter, "The key is that the policy does not have continuity, PV still needs to rely on subsidies, and the amount of subsidies is quite large."

China will enter the world's largest photovoltaic applications market, it has the largest and most complete ecological chain of PV supply and demand. Chen Kangping said that diversified channels and banking projects**, photovoltaic is an investment industry, as the investment industry only activate channels, reduce the cost, provide strong financial support for the industry, photovoltaic can scale development .

Chen Kangping believes that under the guidance of policy-oriented precursor funds such as the opening of a similar country, other financial institutions can play different roles in the photovoltaic investment chain according to their own characteristics and can obtain the expected benefits. Financial reforms and grid reforms will all be crucial to the development of the photovoltaic industry.

Similarly, although the wind power industry maintained strong growth momentum in 2014, “there is still a lot of hidden trouble.” Wang Xiaokun said bluntly, in 2015, land-based wind power is expected to reduce the on-grid tariff, and the difficulties in grid-connected wind power still exist, and the instability of power generation and other factors Still no improvement.

“The investment recovery period of wind power is longer, so investors often value long-term investment income,” said Han Qiming, analyst at Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute.

The CASS predicts that in the future, the newly installed capacity of wind power in China will maintain a steady growth, profitability will be greatly enhanced, and the wind power industry is expected to develop healthily.

According to the wind energy association's estimation, the goal of 200GW can be achieved under the neutral assumption of wind power installed capacity in China by 2020, and it can exceed 300GW under optimistic conditions. The Wind Energy Association forecasts the scale of wind power development in 2020 in three scenarios. Under normal development conditions, with an average annual growth rate of about 18-20 GW of new installed capacity, the total installed capacity of 200 GW can be completed by 2020. From this, it is predicted that by 2020, the installed capacity of wind power will likely reach more than 250 GW. To achieve the goal of reducing coal consumption, we will strive to achieve a 15% share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption by 2020 and a 40%-45% reduction in GDP per unit of GDP by 2020 compared to 2005. The installed capacity will probably reach 320GW.