PV "lock-in effect" is the biggest obstacle to technological progress

In the past 10 years, the cost of photovoltaic power generation in China has dropped significantly. The price of components has dropped from 50 yuan per watt to less than 4 yuan per watt. The system price has dropped from 60 yuan per watt to 7 yuan per watt, with a drop of more than 85%. Driven by the decline in equipment prices, photovoltaic power prices have also dropped by 76%, and the market competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation has been rapidly improved.

The reasons behind the analysis are mainly two aspects: First, the scale effect, the rapid growth of the application market drives the expansion of the production scale of key equipment, which in turn drives down the production cost; the second is technological innovation, which improves production efficiency through new products and processes. Power generation conversion efficiency to achieve efficiency.

Among the two, the effect of scale effect has been more obvious in the past 10 years, and the speed of technological innovation of enterprises is not fast enough, and the frontier technology reserves are not enough. As the effects of scale effects become smaller and smaller, the promotion of conventional technology to repair and repair the cost of photovoltaic power generation is becoming less and less obvious.

Obviously, although the future still has to "walk on two legs", technological progress will play an increasingly important role in reducing the cost of power stations. In the past, it was led by scale, and now it is time to "smash innovation to drive this hard bone."

However, the rapid promotion of an innovative technology to promote technological advancement in the industry will face many obstacles at any time. The first obstacle to be eliminated is the “lock-in effect” of technology.

The so-called technology lock-up refers to the promotion barrier caused by the high cost of introduction and low recognition of advanced technology market compared with traditional technology. Brian Arthur, a well-known American economist and technical thinker and author of The Essence of Technology, has expressed a similar idea. The essence of technology is similar to the essence of the system. Because of the strong path dependence, humans are often "locked in". There are technical and institutional paths. “When society is locked up by institutional paths, society dies. When companies are locked in by technological paths, companies are eliminated.”

Why are innovative technology products "locked"? There are two main reasons:

First, at the beginning of the emergence of new technology products, the market knows very little about it, and people tend to believe in things they are familiar with, suspect new things, and are unwilling to be the first person to “eat crabs”, which makes marketing difficult;

Second, the initial stage of the new technology is small in scale and high in cost. The production of new technology products requires upgrading or even replacing the production line of the original production line. If there is no predictable scale application to dilute the initial cost and attract more enterprises to join the new technology. Ranks to reduce manufacturing costs. In the uncompetitive market environment, manufacturers lack the power of technological innovation and upgrading of production lines. Applicants are more accustomed to lower investment from the beginning, rather than the lower life cycle cost. Make a purchase decision.

The reality in recent years has also confirmed this point. New technologies such as new solar cells, new components, new inverters and 1500 volt systems are emerging one after another, but the market's enthusiasm is not high. At this time, there are some means to encourage development companies to adopt these new technologies, so that the technology products can be quickly promoted. Once the market is opened, new technologies can release a large space for price reduction, and cost-effectiveness can be revealed, and the industry can Gradually shift from scale to innovation.

Breaking the technology lock-in effect and releasing the space for technological innovation is the next step of the photovoltaic industry. In reality, there is already such an important policy soil - the "top runner" program. The National Energy Administration and other three ministries and commissions launched the “Leading Runners” program, which aims to provide an application platform for innovative technology products. While accelerating the cost reduction of new technology products, it will guide enterprises to accelerate technological innovation and promote industrial technology advancement.

The "innovative technology products" mentioned here are not the traditional technology in the eyes of some people, "the generals in the scorpion", not the "returning the corpse", but the essential improvement and change in technology. The new technology, new technologies and new products of the overall technological level.

Only in this way can the “leaders” plan reflect its value and become an application platform for innovative technologies, so as to form a long-term guidance for the development and innovation of cutting-edge technology products in the industry, in order to form a basic support for industrial development.

The current task is to use technical means to identify advanced technology products, to formulate and improve corresponding normative standards, and to objectively verify and evaluate the correct signals to the market, based on a correct understanding of the nature and original intention of the "leaders". The popularization of advanced technology creates an environment that will continue to lead the Chinese PV industry.

Concerned about surprises

Adhesive Activated Twisted Polyester Yarn

Polyester Aa Yarn Twisted,Twisted Yarn For Ep Fabric,Aa Twisted Polyester Yarn,Adhesive Activated Twisted Polyester Yarn

ZHEJIANG GUXIANDAO POLYESTER DOPE DYED YARN CO., LTD , https://www.htpolyesteryarn.com