Steel prices rise in November
2018-05-15 14:00:58
In November, China’s economy continued to develop steadily and rapidly. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets and the main steel industry accelerated. Low-speed growth in iron and steel production and exports, continued growth in the price of raw materials such as iron ore, and an increase in steel prices. In the later period, the market will continue to be dominated by small fluctuations.
1 The price of steel in the domestic market rose from a downward trend. At the end of November, the CSPI domestic steel comprehensive price index of the China Iron and Steel Association was 124.51 points, up 3.19 points or 2.63% from the end of last month. Compared with the same period of last year, the comprehensive price index rose by 20.70 points. , an increase of 19.94%.
2 Analysis of factors affecting steel price changes in the domestic market In November, the growth rate of industrial added value of fixed assets investment and major steel industries accelerated, and the liquidity of credit funds was still relatively abundant. The domestic market showed a non-perishable operating trend in the off-season, affected by steel products. With the increase in demand and the increase in raw fuel prices, steel prices have risen significantly.
2.1 The growth rate of the steel industry has accelerated, driving the growth of steel demand According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the total fixed asset investment in cities and towns was 21.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.9% year-on-year, 0.5% faster than January-October. Percentage. The investment in real estate development increased by 36.5%, and the growth rate was unchanged from January to October; the total planned investment for new projects started to increase by 25.9%, 2.1 percentage points higher than that from January to October; in November, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 13.3% year-on-year. %, an increase of 0.2 percentage points qoq. The growth rate of industrial added value in the major steel industry accelerated. The general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.0%, the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the transportation equipment manufacturing industry increased by 18.1%, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points higher than the previous period; 1.821 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; power generation amounted to 345.3 billion kWh, an increase of 3.72% from the previous period; total social consumption increased by 18.7% year-on-year and 0.1% from the previous period; exports of machinery and electronic products reached US$92.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.66%; The PMI rose to 55.2%, up 0.5% from October, and rose for the fourth consecutive month. The increase in the growth rate of fixed assets investment and industrial added value in the steel industry has accelerated the demand for steel products in the domestic market to maintain growth.
2.2 Low-speed growth of crude steel production and exports, the contradiction between supply and demand tends to ease. The increase in demand for steel products led to an increase in the output of crude steel. According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the country’s crude steel production was 501.73 million tons, an increase of 4.84% year-on-year; pig iron production was 469.230 million tons, an increase of 3.04% year-on-year; steel products (including duplicate wood) production were 65.893 million tons, an increase of 4.58% year-on-year. Judging from the Nissan level, the national crude steel production per day was 1.672,400 tons, an increase of 49,700 tons, an increase of 3.06%, and it kept growing for the second consecutive month. Although the output of crude steel has increased, it has dropped by 9.45% and 3.24%, respectively, from the historical peak of 1.468 million tons of daily production per month in April and the average daily output of 1,728,300 tons from January to November. It is still low; in November, the country exported 2.91 million tons of steel, an increase of 50,000 tons, an increase of 1.75%; equivalent to 3.1 million tons of crude steel exports, an increase of 1.41%.
2.3 The price of raw materials such as iron ore continues to rise, and the support for steel prices has been strengthened. In November, the average spot price of China's imported Indian grade 63.5% iron ore was 1,230 yuan/t, which rose for the second consecutive month, or 4.68%. , an increase of 2.06 percentage points over the previous month; domestic iron concentrate prices rose by 61 yuan/t, or 5.48%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month; metallurgical coke, coking coal, and scrap prices also rose by 5.31%. , 0.51% and 3.05%. Compared with the same period of last year, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, metallurgical coke, coking coal, and scrap were all significantly higher than those of the same period of the previous year. In particular, the price of imported iron ore rose by 50.45% year-on-year. It rose 51.85%. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchase price of China's original fuel and power rose by 9.7% year-on-year in November, which was an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the factory price of industrial products rose by only 6.1% over the same period. The high price of raw fuel is strong and the support to steel prices has been strengthened.
2.4 Steel Stocks Continue to Decline, Market Pressure Becomes Slower As of the end of November, the five steel steel social inventories in the 26 major steel products markets nationwide totaled 13.06 million tons, a decrease of 1.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.52% compared with the previous period, and have fallen for the sixth consecutive month in a row. . The decline in long product inventory was more pronounced than that of sheet metal, in which steel bars and wire stocks fell by 16.78% and 22.62% respectively. Sheet stocks rose from high to low, with HRC inventories falling by 3.70%, and stocks of medium- and heavy-rolled steel sheets declined. 10.51% and 3.02%. The overall level of social inventory is still higher than the same period of last year.
3 Analysis of price trend of steel products in the later period From the current market situation, the demand for steel products continues to grow. Affected by factors such as rising raw fuel prices and falling steel inventories, steel prices are still rising slightly. However, due to the arrival of holidays such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival and the winter off-season consumption season, it is expected that the market will continue to be dominated by minor fluctuations in the later period.
3.1 The continued rise in raw fuel prices has driven steel prices to rise. Since December, raw fuel prices have continued to rise. At present, the spot price of imported iron ore (63.5% grade Indian ore) in Tianjin Port rose to 1,270 yuan/t, an increase of 40 yuan/t or 3.25% from the end of November; the price of domestic refined fine iron powder rose to 1,207 yuan/t. The increase was 2.72%; coke price rose to 1833 yuan/t, an increase of 1.61%; scrap price rose to 3055 yuan/t, an increase of 0.59%. In the international market, the United States, Japan, and other countries have successively introduced the second round of “quantitative easing†monetary policies. The continuous devaluation of the US dollar has led to sharp increases in the prices of crude oil, iron ore, coking coal, and scrap steel, which are denominated in US dollars. Faced with huge cost pressures.
3.2 Steel exports will remain at a relatively low level According to customs statistics, from January to November, the country's total exports of steel were 39.7 million tons, an increase of 86.7% year-on-year; exports of billet were 140,000 tons, an increase of 3.21 times; equivalent to exports of crude steel 39.39 million t, an increase of 87.1%; net exports of 25.83 million tons of crude steel, net imports during the same period last year was 98 million tons. The year-on-year growth in exports was mainly due to the low base last year. In the late period, China’s export environment was not optimistic. In its “World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2011†report released in early December, the United Nations predicted that global economic growth in 2011 will decline from 3.6% in 2010 to 3.1% in 2011. The instability and uncertainty in the recovery of the world economy, as well as inflationary pressures, trade frictions, and appreciation of the currency, will all affect China’s exports. The export situation next year will not be optimistic.
3.3 Monetary policy is turning steadily, and market liquidity is tightening trend The central economic meeting determined that next year’s monetary policy will shift from “moderately loose†to “stableâ€. In order to strengthen liquidity management and moderately regulate monetary credit, since then, the central bank has successively The deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions was raised six times, which was intensively introduced three times from November to December. The impact on market liquidity will gradually show up later. According to the statistics of the Central Bank, in November, ***** increased by 640 billion yuan, although it still maintained a considerable scale, but it decreased by 23.7 billion yuan month-on-month, which was the second consecutive monthly decrease. It is expected that the scale of ***** in December will further decline.
The main issues that the market needs to pay attention to in the later period:
First, in order to control the price level and prevent hyperinflation, the state has taken a number of measures to increase the monetary recovery efforts, which will certainly affect the market liquidity and steel demand in the later period. On the one hand, the iron and steel enterprises must pay more attention to changes in market demand. At the same time, we must also strengthen fund management, improve the efficiency of fund use, and maintain the normal operation of production operations.
Second, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national crude steel production per day was 1.672 million tons in November, an increase of 49,700 tons compared with October. It has increased by two months in a row, reflecting the completion of local energy saving and emission reduction tasks. The production control of steel companies gradually relaxed. Iron and steel enterprises must pay attention to changes in market supply and demand, and insist on effectively controlling production capacity according to market demand.
Third, from the perspective of the domestic steel market in the later period, the long-term demand for long products has grown rapidly, which will continue to increase the price of long products. Plate demand is relatively weak, and the price increase will also be lower than long products. Iron and steel enterprises should rationally arrange production, optimize product structure, reasonably adjust ex-factory prices, and maintain the smooth operation of the steel market.
1 The price of steel in the domestic market rose from a downward trend. At the end of November, the CSPI domestic steel comprehensive price index of the China Iron and Steel Association was 124.51 points, up 3.19 points or 2.63% from the end of last month. Compared with the same period of last year, the comprehensive price index rose by 20.70 points. , an increase of 19.94%.
2 Analysis of factors affecting steel price changes in the domestic market In November, the growth rate of industrial added value of fixed assets investment and major steel industries accelerated, and the liquidity of credit funds was still relatively abundant. The domestic market showed a non-perishable operating trend in the off-season, affected by steel products. With the increase in demand and the increase in raw fuel prices, steel prices have risen significantly.
2.1 The growth rate of the steel industry has accelerated, driving the growth of steel demand According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the total fixed asset investment in cities and towns was 21.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.9% year-on-year, 0.5% faster than January-October. Percentage. The investment in real estate development increased by 36.5%, and the growth rate was unchanged from January to October; the total planned investment for new projects started to increase by 25.9%, 2.1 percentage points higher than that from January to October; in November, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 13.3% year-on-year. %, an increase of 0.2 percentage points qoq. The growth rate of industrial added value in the major steel industry accelerated. The general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.0%, the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the transportation equipment manufacturing industry increased by 18.1%, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points higher than the previous period; 1.821 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; power generation amounted to 345.3 billion kWh, an increase of 3.72% from the previous period; total social consumption increased by 18.7% year-on-year and 0.1% from the previous period; exports of machinery and electronic products reached US$92.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.66%; The PMI rose to 55.2%, up 0.5% from October, and rose for the fourth consecutive month. The increase in the growth rate of fixed assets investment and industrial added value in the steel industry has accelerated the demand for steel products in the domestic market to maintain growth.
2.2 Low-speed growth of crude steel production and exports, the contradiction between supply and demand tends to ease. The increase in demand for steel products led to an increase in the output of crude steel. According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the country’s crude steel production was 501.73 million tons, an increase of 4.84% year-on-year; pig iron production was 469.230 million tons, an increase of 3.04% year-on-year; steel products (including duplicate wood) production were 65.893 million tons, an increase of 4.58% year-on-year. Judging from the Nissan level, the national crude steel production per day was 1.672,400 tons, an increase of 49,700 tons, an increase of 3.06%, and it kept growing for the second consecutive month. Although the output of crude steel has increased, it has dropped by 9.45% and 3.24%, respectively, from the historical peak of 1.468 million tons of daily production per month in April and the average daily output of 1,728,300 tons from January to November. It is still low; in November, the country exported 2.91 million tons of steel, an increase of 50,000 tons, an increase of 1.75%; equivalent to 3.1 million tons of crude steel exports, an increase of 1.41%.
2.3 The price of raw materials such as iron ore continues to rise, and the support for steel prices has been strengthened. In November, the average spot price of China's imported Indian grade 63.5% iron ore was 1,230 yuan/t, which rose for the second consecutive month, or 4.68%. , an increase of 2.06 percentage points over the previous month; domestic iron concentrate prices rose by 61 yuan/t, or 5.48%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month; metallurgical coke, coking coal, and scrap prices also rose by 5.31%. , 0.51% and 3.05%. Compared with the same period of last year, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, metallurgical coke, coking coal, and scrap were all significantly higher than those of the same period of the previous year. In particular, the price of imported iron ore rose by 50.45% year-on-year. It rose 51.85%. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchase price of China's original fuel and power rose by 9.7% year-on-year in November, which was an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the factory price of industrial products rose by only 6.1% over the same period. The high price of raw fuel is strong and the support to steel prices has been strengthened.
2.4 Steel Stocks Continue to Decline, Market Pressure Becomes Slower As of the end of November, the five steel steel social inventories in the 26 major steel products markets nationwide totaled 13.06 million tons, a decrease of 1.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.52% compared with the previous period, and have fallen for the sixth consecutive month in a row. . The decline in long product inventory was more pronounced than that of sheet metal, in which steel bars and wire stocks fell by 16.78% and 22.62% respectively. Sheet stocks rose from high to low, with HRC inventories falling by 3.70%, and stocks of medium- and heavy-rolled steel sheets declined. 10.51% and 3.02%. The overall level of social inventory is still higher than the same period of last year.
3 Analysis of price trend of steel products in the later period From the current market situation, the demand for steel products continues to grow. Affected by factors such as rising raw fuel prices and falling steel inventories, steel prices are still rising slightly. However, due to the arrival of holidays such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival and the winter off-season consumption season, it is expected that the market will continue to be dominated by minor fluctuations in the later period.
3.1 The continued rise in raw fuel prices has driven steel prices to rise. Since December, raw fuel prices have continued to rise. At present, the spot price of imported iron ore (63.5% grade Indian ore) in Tianjin Port rose to 1,270 yuan/t, an increase of 40 yuan/t or 3.25% from the end of November; the price of domestic refined fine iron powder rose to 1,207 yuan/t. The increase was 2.72%; coke price rose to 1833 yuan/t, an increase of 1.61%; scrap price rose to 3055 yuan/t, an increase of 0.59%. In the international market, the United States, Japan, and other countries have successively introduced the second round of “quantitative easing†monetary policies. The continuous devaluation of the US dollar has led to sharp increases in the prices of crude oil, iron ore, coking coal, and scrap steel, which are denominated in US dollars. Faced with huge cost pressures.
3.2 Steel exports will remain at a relatively low level According to customs statistics, from January to November, the country's total exports of steel were 39.7 million tons, an increase of 86.7% year-on-year; exports of billet were 140,000 tons, an increase of 3.21 times; equivalent to exports of crude steel 39.39 million t, an increase of 87.1%; net exports of 25.83 million tons of crude steel, net imports during the same period last year was 98 million tons. The year-on-year growth in exports was mainly due to the low base last year. In the late period, China’s export environment was not optimistic. In its “World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2011†report released in early December, the United Nations predicted that global economic growth in 2011 will decline from 3.6% in 2010 to 3.1% in 2011. The instability and uncertainty in the recovery of the world economy, as well as inflationary pressures, trade frictions, and appreciation of the currency, will all affect China’s exports. The export situation next year will not be optimistic.
3.3 Monetary policy is turning steadily, and market liquidity is tightening trend The central economic meeting determined that next year’s monetary policy will shift from “moderately loose†to “stableâ€. In order to strengthen liquidity management and moderately regulate monetary credit, since then, the central bank has successively The deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions was raised six times, which was intensively introduced three times from November to December. The impact on market liquidity will gradually show up later. According to the statistics of the Central Bank, in November, ***** increased by 640 billion yuan, although it still maintained a considerable scale, but it decreased by 23.7 billion yuan month-on-month, which was the second consecutive monthly decrease. It is expected that the scale of ***** in December will further decline.
The main issues that the market needs to pay attention to in the later period:
First, in order to control the price level and prevent hyperinflation, the state has taken a number of measures to increase the monetary recovery efforts, which will certainly affect the market liquidity and steel demand in the later period. On the one hand, the iron and steel enterprises must pay more attention to changes in market demand. At the same time, we must also strengthen fund management, improve the efficiency of fund use, and maintain the normal operation of production operations.
Second, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national crude steel production per day was 1.672 million tons in November, an increase of 49,700 tons compared with October. It has increased by two months in a row, reflecting the completion of local energy saving and emission reduction tasks. The production control of steel companies gradually relaxed. Iron and steel enterprises must pay attention to changes in market supply and demand, and insist on effectively controlling production capacity according to market demand.
Third, from the perspective of the domestic steel market in the later period, the long-term demand for long products has grown rapidly, which will continue to increase the price of long products. Plate demand is relatively weak, and the price increase will also be lower than long products. Iron and steel enterprises should rationally arrange production, optimize product structure, reasonably adjust ex-factory prices, and maintain the smooth operation of the steel market.