Can the diesel technology revolution save diesel cars?

On April 25th, Volkermar Denner, Chief Executive Officer of Bosch Group in Germany, announced that a diesel vehicle exhaust emission technology with a decisive breakthrough can significantly reduce the emission of nitrogen oxides from diesel vehicles, which will be achieved by 2020. The minimum requirement for nitrogen oxide emissions.

At the press conference of Bosch's annual report, Denner changed his low-key style on weekdays and said impassively: "Today we hope to thoroughly conclude discussions on the end of diesel engines." He even used the word "revolution."

As the head of the world’s largest auto supplier, Denner’s reason for making such a statement was considered to be very sufficient. According to reports, Bosch's new technology is to use artificial intelligence software to allow air management systems to quickly respond to driver's driving styles, combined with well-designed diesel injection systems and intelligent temperature control systems, and ultimately allow the average nitrogen and oxygen emissions of diesel engines. Only one-tenth of the prescribed emission limit will be implemented starting in 2020. In the actual driving emissions test (RDE), the NOx emission can be as low as 13 mg per kilometer, which is far below the 168 mg per kilometer that is the EU's lowest emission standard that will come into force in September of this year.

The basic principle is to raise the temperature of exhaust gas that is too low, especially in city traffic. Road congestion, waiting for traffic lights, and low speed driving are the factors that make the exhaust gas temperature too low. The key to reducing the nitrogen and oxygen emissions is to make the exhaust gas temperature at least low. At 200 degrees Celsius. This technology does not require the addition of new accessories, has minimal impact on the performance of the vehicle, costs less than 100 euros, and can be mass produced and put into use immediately.

In order to eliminate the public's suspicion of the new technology, Bosch has conducted driving tests openly, and at the same time using standardized testing instruments, and in the face of reporters who have been constantly questioning from a critical perspective, Donnell has shown self-confidence. The preliminary judgment that the public can make is that today, after Germany’s “diesel exhaust valve” scandal continued to ferment for two and a half years, the head of the Bosch Group should not risk their own professional and corporate reputation. Boldly exaggerate the effectiveness of new technologies.

In fact, the issue that people are more interested in might be: Why does it sound like a less complex technology to be announced in this eloquence? Why did the competent engineers of Bosch not use their intelligence in the search for a bright and straightforward solution at the outset, but involved themselves in the scandal of the diesel door? In response, the person in charge of Bosch's transportation business responded by saying: "We only want to publish fully mature technology. This requires hundreds of trials." It is said that the real breakthrough of this new technology was realized only a few months ago. In the past four years, hundreds of engineers have spent countless hours on various details.

Usually, similar research and development of automobile suppliers is carried out jointly with their customers, ie automobile manufacturers, and new models and new technologies are announced by automobile manufacturers. Suppliers usually stand behind the scenes. Although Bosch is currently negotiating with the different car manufacturers on the use of this technology, it is indeed eager to show. This anti-conventional practice on the one hand reflects Bosch's self-confidence, while on the other hand it shows that the company is facing tremendous pressure. This pressure comes mainly from the following aspects:

First, the German diesel exhaust scandal that started in September 2015 has undoubtedly affected automotive suppliers. It is still under investigation whether Bosch, as a supplier, has falsely informed or actively participated in the manufacturer's exhaust system. But to be sure, Bosch has developed engine control devices for car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Porsche, Audi, Mercedes-Benz and Opel since 2001. In this device there is a software that not only monitors the ignition and diesel injection of the engine, but also monitors As well as controlling exhaust emissions, the experts also discovered that the device has the function of shutting off the exhaust gas and the software that can identify the vehicle in the test state. The role of Bosch in this device is inconclusive, but currently the Stuttgart Procuratorate is investigating eight Bosch employees. And in addition to known incidents, the procuratorate is still investigating whether Bosch has provided fraudulent software for Fiat, Ford, Hyundai and General Motors. Regardless of how to avoid and deny, Bosch's reputation is further challenged.

Second, the demand for diesel vehicles has been significantly reduced in Europe. Bosch is the world leader in diesel technology. The diesel vehicle business brings the largest sales and highest profits to the Bosch Group. Bosch's diesel vehicle business employs 50,000 people worldwide, of which Europe accounts for half. Due to the introduction of actual driving emissions tests and more stringent emission standards in the EU, automakers have to reduce exhaust emissions of hazardous substances through higher-cost SCR systems (selective catalytic reduction technologies). However, due to cost considerations, auto manufacturers are reluctant to deploy SCR systems in low-end and small-sized vehicles, and therefore some of them are turning to the production of electric vehicles or gasoline vehicles. At present, Bosch's loss of diesel vehicle business in Europe can also be made up in markets such as China, but this situation may not be maintained until the second half of 2018.

Third, the German government and the public have been discussing the issue of bans on diesel vehicles. In March, the German Federal Administrative Court finalized the verdict and ruled that German cities have the right to impose diesel vehicle bans in order to reduce air pollution. This ruling further cleared the legal barriers to the ban on diesel vehicles, or it will trigger domino effects in German cities. Bosch’s concern is that once the diesel vehicle is withdrawn, the loss as an automotive supplier is greater than that of the auto manufacturer. Because the latter can sell petrol cars, hybrid cars, and pure electric vehicles based on market demand, Bosch's billions of investments in diesel injection systems, machinery, and tools cannot easily shift to petrol vehicles. Under the pressure of not giving up on the diesel vehicle business, Bosch hopes to use technological innovation for self-rescue, so at this time eager to rehabilitate various stigma of diesel vehicles, such as polluting air, exhaust gas detection is easy to cheat, and the cost of emission technology modification is high. .

German car manufacturers are friendly towards this innovation, such as BMW, after all, half of the vehicles they sell in Europe are diesel cars. Cai Che, president of Daimler, also stated: “The latest diesel vehicles are not the trouble of hybrid power in the future, but part of the solution.” Daimler believes that the future of diesel is absolutely bright for high-end vehicles. In addition, from the point of view of the EU's emission reduction targets, if there is no diesel vehicle with relatively low energy consumption, automobile manufacturers cannot meet the EU's carbon emission targets. Therefore, in the eyes of auto manufacturers, diesel vehicles should not be easily replaced in the short term and should not be abandoned in the future.

According to German media and industry experts, the discussion on the ban on diesel vehicles currently being carried out in the public began to break away from the facts and lacked a rational voice. The new technology announced by Bosch has provided new arguments and arguments for rational discussion. There are also auto experts who have reservations about the qualitative characteristics of “breakthrough” and “revolution”. They acknowledge that the technology is an innovation or technological improvement. It is attractive for the transition period before the future abandoned diesel engine is turned to electric traffic, but it is Whether it is possible to regain consumer trust in diesel vehicles is still unknown. It should be pointed out that in 2017, the number of cars held in Germany was 45.8 million, of which 32.9% were diesel vehicles, while the old-style diesel vehicles with greater pollution accounted for more than 70%, and about 15 million vehicles. Bosch's new technology does not change the emissions of old cars. For such a large number of old cars, there are no auto parts makers and manufacturers who have proposed feasible retrofit technology solutions. The main reason is that the German auto industry is not really willing to Focusing on the transformation of new energy vehicles, the climate goal is not their core concern.

For policy makers and car manufacturers, Bosch's technology also means new pressures. Because according to Bosch, the new technology can be applied to other engines and large vehicles, the current emission limits and the emission limits set for the next few years are obviously too high. Manufacturers and legislators must face significant adjustments to existing plans and policies. Issues concerning the prohibition of diesel and diesel vehicles may be reassessed. In the new governing agreement of the German government, the new government emphasized that in the field of climate protection and energy transfer, we should lay down the ideological struggle and adhere to the "technical openness" attitude. The publication of Bosch's new technology will initially test the ability of the new government to honor the ruling program.

Regardless of the revolutionary nature of Bosch's "magical diesel technology," its significance cannot be overlooked.

First of all, Germany’s achievements in emission reduction and transportation energy consumption in the past two years can be considered as failing: the official statement stated that the 2020 climate target is almost impossible to achieve; energy consumption in the transportation sector has increased rather than decreased, and has long become a major energy consumer and emitter. The development of electric vehicles in Germany is slow. If you give up diesel vehicles with relatively good energy efficiency and rely entirely on petrol cars and electric traffic, then the emission reduction that is the highest goal is far from attainable.

Second, in the face of the impact of new energy vehicles, the German traditional car industry is facing difficult choices. Bosch's new technology offers a new option, which can guarantee the future development of the German traditional car industry without having to pay a high price, but it also means that it will restrict the implementation of the German diesel vehicle ban.

Third, according to Bosch, new technologies can further improve their effectiveness through artificial intelligence. In the foreseeable future, diesel vehicles using this technology will once again form a competitive trend for new energy vehicles. Under healthy competition, both diesel and new energy vehicles will optimize their performance under pressure. Consumers and environmental protection and climate protection activities have positive significance. This shows that although the future belongs to electric vehicles, the end of the era of diesel vehicles is not just around the corner.