531 Photovoltaic New Deal Anniversary: ​​Over 60% of companies' performance decline

The sequela of this "black swan" of the PV 531 New Deal is still showing the rest.

Recently, the 2018 annual report of photovoltaic companies has been fully disclosed, and some PV giants have not performed satisfactorily. Two photovoltaic companies of GCL, GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK), GCL New Energy (00451.HK), Longji (601012.SH), Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), Weiwei Xinneng (300317.SZ) and many other PV companies have seen a decline in performance.

A number of people in the photovoltaic industry told the China Times that the 531 New Deal marked the gradual approach of the non-subsidized photovoltaic era, which had an impact on domestic demand, the price of photovoltaic products fell, and the new investment in ordinary ground-based photovoltaic power plants was almost stagnant. The growth rate of the overall installed capacity of photovoltaics has been greatly reduced. Many enterprises in the PV industry chain are facing performance pressures. However, due to the blooming of the international market, the days of PV manufacturing enterprises in 2019 will be better than those in 2018.

531 after the crisis is still

The difficulty of the photovoltaic giant in 2018 can be seen in the annual report data.

The GCL-Poly Energy Annual Report shows that revenue in 2018 decreased by 13.6% year-on-year to 20.565 billion yuan; net profit loss was 693 million yuan. In 2017, its net profit was 1.926 billion yuan. Another son of the GCL series also appeared that GCL New Energy also did not increase its income. In 2018, GCL New Energy realized revenue (excluding electricity subsidies) of 5.632 billion yuan, an increase of 43% over 2017; Net profit was about 470 million yuan, down 44.18% from 2017.

Monocrystalline silicon giant Longji shares were also unsatisfactory in 2018, with a net profit of 558 million yuan, down 28.24% year-on-year. In addition, many companies such as Sunshine Power, Hareon Solar, and Weiwei New Energy have experienced different levels of performance declines and even losses. According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 6018, 60% of China's PV companies experienced a decline in performance, and even many companies experienced large losses.

And all this is closely related to the 531 New Deal in 2018. According to the National Energy Administration, domestic installed photovoltaic power generation increased by 44.26GW in 2018, down 16.58% year-on-year. The decrease in new installed capacity also led to a decline in demand for PV industry chain products, and the price of PV manufacturing products declined.

In an interview with the "China Times" reporter, the top executives of GCL-Poly Energy said that the price of photovoltaic materials fell by more than 40% in the second half of last year, resulting in a sharp decline in profitability. “But GCL-Poly’s silicon wafers account for nearly one-quarter of the global market share, and the concentration of materials has increased after consolidation. The price reduction of materials has drastically reduced the price of component systems, and more regions have achieved PV parity.” Xin Energy executives said.

Longji shares said that due to the large decline in the price of major products in 2018, the gross profit margin decreased year-on-year. In addition, due to the provision for inventory depreciation, the company's net profit declined year-on-year.

Power station financing pressure

“The highlight of GCL-Poly in 2019 is the newly added supply of 60,000 tons of polysilicon in Xinjiang. This project was completed in the fourth quarter of last year, with low cost and high quality. The other is Xin single-crystal production capacity, which was transformed to 12GW at the end of the year. Xin single crystal reflects more The low cost of crystal and the high efficiency of single crystal are the first choice for subsidizing projects.” The above-mentioned GCL-Poly Energy executives further stated that there is also a joint-strength CZ single crystal 8GW and a cost-effective polycrystalline black silicon. In the product structure, polycrystalline still has a market share of about 30%.

Although the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2018 met the policy “black swan”, the company is full of confidence in the development of 2019.

"After the 531 New Deal in 2018, Sunshine Power overcame difficulties, worked hard, reduced costs, and opened up markets. It also achieved some results. In 2018, it was more difficult, but revenues increased by 20%. In 2019, one The aspect is to vigorously explore the international market. The second aspect is to continuously increase investment in marketing and R&D. I still have confidence in the performance this year.” Sun Renxin’s chairman Cao Renxian said in an interview with the “China Times” reporter. .

Peng Yu, director of the Policy Research Department of the Recycling Energy Special Committee of the China Association of Circular Economy, told reporters that the days of photovoltaic manufacturing companies in 2019 will be better than in 2018, because of the strong demand in the international market, the large number of components exported and the price is firm, so Whether it is the component price of the primary market or the stock of the photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises in the secondary market, the overall situation is better.

The reporter noted that the total market value of Longji shares has returned to the market value of 80 billion yuan, Sunshine Power, Tongwei shares, and Zhonghuan shares. Since the private enterprise symposium in November 2018, the stock price has risen rapidly.

It is worth noting that on April 30, the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "Notice on Improving the Relevant Issues Concerning the On-grid Price Mechanism of Photovoltaic Power Generation", stipulating that the price of new centralized photovoltaic power plants in the I-III resource area is 0.4 yuan per kWh. (including tax, the same below), 0.45 yuan, 0.55 yuan; "spontaneous self-use, surplus online" mode of industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic project subsidy standard is 0.1 yuan per kWh; household distributed photovoltaic subsidy standard is adjusted to per kWh 0.18 yuan. Compared with the PV on-grid tariff and subsidy policy in 2018, the guidance price of I-III resource area this year is reduced by 0.1 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.15 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 20%, 25%, and 21.4%, respectively; The subsidy standard for distributed photovoltaic projects in the “surplus electricity” mode was reduced by 68.75%.

Will it be re-emerged in 2019? Peng Yu analyzed that the continuous reduction of subsidies will continue until 2020, until the subsidy returns to zero. In the case of subsidies, it is expected that there will not be a large number of rushing surges this year. Some of the previous ordinary power station filings will arrive in 2019. In the period, there is a wave of rushing, but the amount will not be large.

In addition, Peng Yu believes that the three types of photovoltaic companies are still facing no small pressure in 2019.

"The main dilemma of domestic PV companies is that the PV companies at the manufacturing end have invested a large number of power stations in the early stage, and the pressure on capital costs will be greatly reduced by depositing a lot of funds. Secondly, component manufacturers may face lower component prices in the future. The pressure, and further cut costs, but this pressure is far less than the financing pressure of holding the power station." Peng Yu further said that the biggest pressure on PV development companies is subsidy arrears, the subsidy arrears solution is temporarily not seen in the short term Therefore, companies with weak financing capabilities do not recommend long-term holding of photovoltaic power plants.

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