Economic Operation Situation of Machinery Industry in 2009 and Forecast for 2010
2018-11-04 13:01:37
On January 27th, China Machinery Industry Federation held a press conference on “The Economic Operation Situation of Machinery Industry in 2009â€. Wang Ruixiang, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, and Zhang Xiaoyu, Cai Weici, and Zhao Chi, executive vice presidents of the China Machinery Industry Federation, attended the conference.
Wang Ruixiang, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, introduced the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2009 and predicted the operation of the machinery industry in 2010. President Wang said: In the past year, the financial crisis has been hugely impacted, but the machinery industry has finally overcome unprecedented problems due to the rapid release and implementation of the adjustment and revitalization plan for the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry (hereinafter referred to as the “Planningâ€). The difficulty has achieved steady and rapid growth. In 2009, the added value of machinery industry increased by 13.8% over the previous year. The total output value jumped to a new level of 10 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.07% over the previous year; the total profit from January to November was 581.6 billion. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.81%, total tax of 320.6 billion yuan, an increase of 25.65%.
Looking forward to 2010, the economic operation of the machinery industry is expected to continue to maintain a good momentum of development. The annual production and sales is expected to achieve an increase of about 15% over the previous year.
I. Economic operation of machinery industry in 2009
(1) The growth measures have been effective, and the economic operation has steadily rebounded.
1. The rebound is early and steady, and it is constantly accelerating
Since the fourth quarter of 2008, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the growth of major economic indicators of the national machinery industry has seen the biggest decline in recent years. In February 2009, the bottom line, the main economic indicators growth data hit a new low in the past seven years, implemented in the central government. After responding to the financial crisis package, the policy effect of “guaranteeing growth†appeared earlier in the machinery industry, and the main economic indicators rose steadily month by month. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial output value rose by 1% per month, and the year-on-year growth rate of total profit increased by 5 percentage points. The output of major products and new orders also showed a steady recovery from month to month. After entering the fourth quarter, especially in November and December, the recovery rate has obviously accelerated.
2. Double-digit growth in production and sales, breaking through the 10 trillion yuan mark for the first time
In 2009, the machinery industry completed the total industrial output value and sales value of 10.75 trillion yuan and 10.48 trillion yuan, and the production and sales exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time. In 2009, the total output value and sales value of the machinery industry increased by 16.07% and 16.11% respectively over the previous year. So far, since 2003, the machinery industry has had a new trillion yuan in production and sales for seven consecutive years.
In 2009, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 13.8% over the previous year, 2.8 percentage points higher than the national industry's 11.0% growth rate, and more than 5 percentage points higher than the national GDP growth rate. It can be seen that the machinery industry has made outstanding contributions to the goal of “guaranteeing growth†in China.
3. The output of major products has reached a new high, especially in the automobile and agricultural machinery industries.
Among the 118 major product outputs included in the Express Statistics, 76 products have been accumulated in the year, accounting for 64.41% of all reported products, of which 57 are products with more than double-digit growth, accounting for all reported products. 48.31%. The output of large and medium-sized tractors and automobiles has reached a record high. The output of power generation equipment is slightly lower than last year, but the total volume is still high. The proportion of CNC machine tools in total machine tool output has increased significantly.
The agricultural machinery and automobile industries are developing faster than other industries with the support of national policies.
The agricultural machinery industry benefited from the country's substantial increase in subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery, and the production and sales situation continued to be hot. In 2009, the total industrial output value increased by 21.41% year-on-year, and the output of major agricultural machinery products increased by more than 20%; the profit from January to November increased by 36.00%. Among them: the annual output of large and medium-sized tractors exceeded 320,000, and the output of combined harvesting machinery exceeded 100,000 units, an increase of 27.61% over the previous year, all of which set a new record for annual output.
The automobile industry achieved rapid growth in production and sales in 2009, and it was the “engine†for the growth of the machinery industry in 2009. The recovery rate of the automobile industry's output value is obviously faster than that of the machinery industry. The average machinery industry rebounds by 1 percentage point every month, and the automobile industry rebounds by 3 percentage points every month. In 2009, the total industrial output value of the automobile industry accounted for 29.53% of the total output value of the machinery industry in the same period, while the increase in output value accounted for 44.33% of the entire industry of the machinery industry. From January to November, the total profit of the automobile industry accounted for 33.9% of the entire industry of the machinery industry, and its profit increase Accounting for 62.2% of the entire industry. Since March 2009, the monthly sales volume of China's automobiles has exceeded one million units for ten consecutive months. The annual output reached 13.79 million, and the sales volume reached 13.64 million, of which the production and sales of cars reached 7.47 million. China has leapt to the world's largest automobile production and sales country.
4. The economic benefits of the whole industry have reached a new level and made outstanding contributions to the national finance.
From January to November 2009, the machinery industry realized a profit of 581.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%.
What is more gratifying is that the profit rate of the main business income of the industry has reached the best level in recent years. According to the comparable monthly report, the profit rate of the main business income of the machinery industry from January to November is 6.31%, which is 0.48 points higher than the same period of 2008. ;
In the machinery industry, the total tax revenue from January to November was 320.6 billion yuan, an increase of 25.65%. Among them, the value-added tax was 246.9 billion yuan, an increase of 27.17%. The increase was higher than the increase in production and sales, and also higher than the increase in profits.
5. The structural adjustment has achieved initial results, and the pace of technological progress has accelerated.
First, the pace of technological progress is accelerating
From the second half of 2008 to May 2009, the growth rate of new output value of machinery industry has been lower than the total industrial output value in the same period; however, the growth rate of new products has increased month by month since June 2009. In 2009, the total output value of new machinery industry products increased by 23.74% year-on-year, which was 7.67 percentage points higher than the growth rate of industrial output value (16.07%). In 2009, the total output value of machinery industry accounted for nearly 20% of the total industrial output of the country, and the contribution rate to the total industrial added volume was 32%, of which the contribution rate of new product increment was 35.2%. It shows that the technological progress activities of the industry are re-energized under the pull of market demand.
Second, new progress has been made in independent innovation of high-end equipment.
—— Progress in localization of large castings and forgings: In 2009, the domestic market satisfaction rate of high and medium pressure rotors for thermal power units of 30,600,000 kilowatts has been increased to 58%, and the domestic market satisfaction rate of low pressure rotors has increased to 45%. The satisfaction rate has been increased to 80%; the key large forgings required for the third-generation nuclear power equipment have always been the roadblocks affecting the autonomy of China's nuclear power construction. In 2009, the technical breakthroughs of representative key forgings such as pressure shells, evaporators and main pipelines have been successively obtained. breakthrough.
——High-end equipment, independent innovation and fruitful results: UHV AC complete sets of equipment in the world's leading level have been safely operated on the test demonstration line for one year. The key equipment of UHV DC has been successfully put into operation at the end of 2009, and large-scale thermal power of 300,000 kW and above The proportion of unit output to the total output of thermal power units increased from 80.8% in 2008 to 82%; the self-developed large-scale open-pit mine 220-ton electric wheel dump truck was completed in 2009; three major compressions required for a million-ton ethylene plant The machine and multi-stream low-temperature cold box were successfully developed. The compressors and valves for domestic gas pipelines were finally implemented in the second phase of the West-East Gas Pipeline Project; the development of large-scale engineering machinery such as 1080-ton crawler cranes and 500-ton all-terrain cranes success.
——Although the total output of basic machinery declined, the structural optimization is now bright spot: According to the statistics of 197 key enterprises in the machine tool industry, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tool output value increased by 6 percentage points from January to September in 2009, reaching 53.6%; Machine tool output fell by 30.6% year-on-year, but the average unit price increased by 34%, CNC machine tool output fell by 13.8%, but the unit price increased by 21%. This shows the obvious upgrade momentum of machine tools.
Third, corporate restructuring tends to be active
Under the guidance of national policies, whether it is mergers and acquisitions between domestic enterprises, or “going out†to acquire foreign companies, or to develop regional industrial agglomerations, local and related enterprises have conducted many meaningful explorations under the encouragement of national policies. Corporate restructuring activities tend to be active, which will help optimize the allocation of resources and accelerate the pace of enterprises to become bigger and stronger.
Fourth, the regional structural adjustment is developing in the expected direction.
In 2009, the central and western regions and the old industrial bases in the northeast grew faster than the eastern coastal areas. This trend is quite gratifying.
6. Expanding investment and achieving results, rapid growth of fixed asset investment
In 2009, the machinery industry completed a total of 146.432 billion yuan in fixed assets investment (including Jian'an accounted for 46.43%, equipment accounted for 44.21%), an increase of 38.44%, an increase of much higher than the national manufacturing (26.8%).
(2) There are many problems in the development of the industry, and there are still many outstanding problems in the development of the industry.
First, the pace of "strengthening the foundation" must be accelerated.
For example, although the development of large-scale castings and forgings has progressed, it has not yet entered a stable production stage, and it is necessary to continue the process technology research to make the yield and cost in a controllable state. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to increase efforts on the requirements of the “solid foundation†of the key requirements of the plan.
Second, the environment for high-end equipment localization is still not ideal.
The outstanding performance is that the phenomenon of discriminating domestically produced equipment in equipment bidding is still common; users insist that domestically produced mainframes must use their designated imported parts and materials; over-price reduction of domestically produced equipment in equipment procurement; exaggeration of publicity in the process of localization Winding and problems; increasing the difficulty of localization with unrealistic requirements higher than the international standard of similar products, and so on.
Third, the demand growth of many key products has dropped significantly.
The growth rate of demand for key products such as power generation equipment, metal rolling mills and metallurgical equipment has dropped significantly. This is a signal worthy of vigilance. It shows that with the impact of the financial crisis as a trigger point, the machinery industry has entered a difficult position to rely on the rapid growth of traditional product demand to support the development. New stage. In the future, we must accelerate the pace of industrial restructuring and upgrading to expand the growth space of the industry.
Fourth, the import and export situation is still very serious.
In 2009, the machinery industry earned a total of US$195.8 billion in foreign exchange exports, down 19.25% from the previous year. The import use of foreign exchange was US$180.9 billion, a decrease of 7.14% over the previous year. The decline in imports was significantly less than that of the same period. The import and export surplus dropped sharply from US$476.69 billion in the previous year to US$14.9 billion, highlighting the weakness of China’s weak international competitiveness. Although the decline in exports began to narrow from September 2009, the monthly export value has not been effectively enlarged, and has not reached the monthly average of US$22 billion in the second and third quarters of 2008. It can be seen that the external demand market has not really recovered, and it must not be blindly optimistic.
Fifth, accounts receivable remain high
From January to November 2009, the company's finished product funds only increased by 1.88% year-on-year, which was much lower than the growth rate of industrial output during the same period (14.09%), indicating that machinery companies have generally increased their internal management and compressed their inventory. Significant results were achieved; however, the enterprises that compressed accounts receivable were obviously unable to do so. Although they increased their debts, they still increased by 18.19% year-on-year, which was much higher than the growth of production and sales over the same period. This shows that the external environment of enterprises is still quite severe.
Therefore, although the machinery industry has achieved double-digit growth in 2009, we must not be blindly optimistic, but must increase our sense of urgency and continue to increase our efforts to meet the challenges.
Second, the economic operation prospect of machinery industry in 2010
(I) Analysis of economic operation environment in 2010
From the domestic demand market, the central government has clearly stated that it will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. It is expected that the economy is expected to continue its momentum of rapid rebound at the end of last year, and domestic demand, including machinery products, is expected to rebound rapidly. Under the background of more emphasis on structural adjustment, the demand for equipment upgrade will be more urgent. This trend is a long-term positive for the growth of domestic demand in the machinery industry.
From the perspective of the external demand market, the world's major economies have begun to bottom out, the foreign trade market is expected to stop falling, and there will be recovery growth. At the same time, due to the low base in the previous year, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to be higher; International trade protectionism has risen and continues to expand and spread. Therefore, it is not too optimistic about export growth. It is expected that exports will not recover to the 2008 level.
From the perspective of macroeconomic policy, although the tone of the macro-control policy orientation has not changed, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the economic situation and the resulting "flexibility" and "targeting" of policy adjustments.
From the perspective of industrial policy guidance, the rules for supporting policies in the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry adjustment and revitalization plan are still being introduced one after another, and the machinery industry will benefit from it. In addition, the implementation of the VAT transition policy has already and will continue to mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties to purchase machinery and equipment, and is also conducive to the reduction of fixed asset investment costs by machinery companies themselves. In general, the orientation of industrial policy in 2010 has shifted from “guaranteeing growth†to “adjusting structureâ€, and there must be sufficient mental preparation for this.
From the perspective of factor supply, with the tightening of coal-electricity oil supply capacity and general price increases, the prices of major raw materials have reappeared; as the central bank once again began to raise the deposit reserve ratio and the central bank rate, corporate fund-raising costs are also Will enter the ascending channel; in addition, labor costs are also on the rise.
From the technical point of view of growth rate calculation, in the first half of 2009, due to the financial crisis, the growth rate of major economic indicators has been relatively low, so the growth rate in the first half of this year is relatively easy to increase; similarly, the growth rate in the second half of the year It is easy to fall back.
(II) Forecast of economic operation trend of machinery industry in 2010
First, although the total demand has risen steadily, but due to the excessive growth of production capacity in the whole industry, the competition will be more intense, and the competitive pressure felt by enterprises will continue to increase.
Second, the total production and sales of the whole industry will continue to grow steadily on the basis of the previous year; however, due to excessive competition, the growth rate of benefits may be lower than that of production and sales.
Third, the growth rate at the beginning of the year is relatively high, and may even be higher than 50%. However, it will gradually fall back after that, and the annual growth rate curve will show an obvious trend of “before high and then lowâ€.
(III) Forecast of development speed in 2010
It is expected that the main economic indicators of the machinery industry in 2010 are expected to achieve steady growth:
The growth rate of production and sales is expected to reach about 15%;
The profit growth rate is expected to reach about 10%;
The growth rate of foreign exchange earned by exports can reach about 15%.
The year 2010 is the last year of implementing the 11th Five-Year Plan and the year for laying the foundation for the 12th Five-Year Plan. The machinery industry must resolutely implement the five "more attention" requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, accelerate the pace of structural adjustment and transformation of development mode, further enhance the vitality and momentum of economic growth, and strive to achieve steady and rapid development of the machinery industry.
Wang Ruixiang, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, introduced the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2009 and predicted the operation of the machinery industry in 2010. President Wang said: In the past year, the financial crisis has been hugely impacted, but the machinery industry has finally overcome unprecedented problems due to the rapid release and implementation of the adjustment and revitalization plan for the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry (hereinafter referred to as the “Planningâ€). The difficulty has achieved steady and rapid growth. In 2009, the added value of machinery industry increased by 13.8% over the previous year. The total output value jumped to a new level of 10 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.07% over the previous year; the total profit from January to November was 581.6 billion. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.81%, total tax of 320.6 billion yuan, an increase of 25.65%.
Looking forward to 2010, the economic operation of the machinery industry is expected to continue to maintain a good momentum of development. The annual production and sales is expected to achieve an increase of about 15% over the previous year.
I. Economic operation of machinery industry in 2009
(1) The growth measures have been effective, and the economic operation has steadily rebounded.
1. The rebound is early and steady, and it is constantly accelerating
Since the fourth quarter of 2008, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the growth of major economic indicators of the national machinery industry has seen the biggest decline in recent years. In February 2009, the bottom line, the main economic indicators growth data hit a new low in the past seven years, implemented in the central government. After responding to the financial crisis package, the policy effect of “guaranteeing growth†appeared earlier in the machinery industry, and the main economic indicators rose steadily month by month. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial output value rose by 1% per month, and the year-on-year growth rate of total profit increased by 5 percentage points. The output of major products and new orders also showed a steady recovery from month to month. After entering the fourth quarter, especially in November and December, the recovery rate has obviously accelerated.
2. Double-digit growth in production and sales, breaking through the 10 trillion yuan mark for the first time
In 2009, the machinery industry completed the total industrial output value and sales value of 10.75 trillion yuan and 10.48 trillion yuan, and the production and sales exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time. In 2009, the total output value and sales value of the machinery industry increased by 16.07% and 16.11% respectively over the previous year. So far, since 2003, the machinery industry has had a new trillion yuan in production and sales for seven consecutive years.
In 2009, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 13.8% over the previous year, 2.8 percentage points higher than the national industry's 11.0% growth rate, and more than 5 percentage points higher than the national GDP growth rate. It can be seen that the machinery industry has made outstanding contributions to the goal of “guaranteeing growth†in China.
3. The output of major products has reached a new high, especially in the automobile and agricultural machinery industries.
Among the 118 major product outputs included in the Express Statistics, 76 products have been accumulated in the year, accounting for 64.41% of all reported products, of which 57 are products with more than double-digit growth, accounting for all reported products. 48.31%. The output of large and medium-sized tractors and automobiles has reached a record high. The output of power generation equipment is slightly lower than last year, but the total volume is still high. The proportion of CNC machine tools in total machine tool output has increased significantly.
The agricultural machinery and automobile industries are developing faster than other industries with the support of national policies.
The agricultural machinery industry benefited from the country's substantial increase in subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery, and the production and sales situation continued to be hot. In 2009, the total industrial output value increased by 21.41% year-on-year, and the output of major agricultural machinery products increased by more than 20%; the profit from January to November increased by 36.00%. Among them: the annual output of large and medium-sized tractors exceeded 320,000, and the output of combined harvesting machinery exceeded 100,000 units, an increase of 27.61% over the previous year, all of which set a new record for annual output.
The automobile industry achieved rapid growth in production and sales in 2009, and it was the “engine†for the growth of the machinery industry in 2009. The recovery rate of the automobile industry's output value is obviously faster than that of the machinery industry. The average machinery industry rebounds by 1 percentage point every month, and the automobile industry rebounds by 3 percentage points every month. In 2009, the total industrial output value of the automobile industry accounted for 29.53% of the total output value of the machinery industry in the same period, while the increase in output value accounted for 44.33% of the entire industry of the machinery industry. From January to November, the total profit of the automobile industry accounted for 33.9% of the entire industry of the machinery industry, and its profit increase Accounting for 62.2% of the entire industry. Since March 2009, the monthly sales volume of China's automobiles has exceeded one million units for ten consecutive months. The annual output reached 13.79 million, and the sales volume reached 13.64 million, of which the production and sales of cars reached 7.47 million. China has leapt to the world's largest automobile production and sales country.
4. The economic benefits of the whole industry have reached a new level and made outstanding contributions to the national finance.
From January to November 2009, the machinery industry realized a profit of 581.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%.
What is more gratifying is that the profit rate of the main business income of the industry has reached the best level in recent years. According to the comparable monthly report, the profit rate of the main business income of the machinery industry from January to November is 6.31%, which is 0.48 points higher than the same period of 2008. ;
In the machinery industry, the total tax revenue from January to November was 320.6 billion yuan, an increase of 25.65%. Among them, the value-added tax was 246.9 billion yuan, an increase of 27.17%. The increase was higher than the increase in production and sales, and also higher than the increase in profits.
5. The structural adjustment has achieved initial results, and the pace of technological progress has accelerated.
First, the pace of technological progress is accelerating
From the second half of 2008 to May 2009, the growth rate of new output value of machinery industry has been lower than the total industrial output value in the same period; however, the growth rate of new products has increased month by month since June 2009. In 2009, the total output value of new machinery industry products increased by 23.74% year-on-year, which was 7.67 percentage points higher than the growth rate of industrial output value (16.07%). In 2009, the total output value of machinery industry accounted for nearly 20% of the total industrial output of the country, and the contribution rate to the total industrial added volume was 32%, of which the contribution rate of new product increment was 35.2%. It shows that the technological progress activities of the industry are re-energized under the pull of market demand.
Second, new progress has been made in independent innovation of high-end equipment.
—— Progress in localization of large castings and forgings: In 2009, the domestic market satisfaction rate of high and medium pressure rotors for thermal power units of 30,600,000 kilowatts has been increased to 58%, and the domestic market satisfaction rate of low pressure rotors has increased to 45%. The satisfaction rate has been increased to 80%; the key large forgings required for the third-generation nuclear power equipment have always been the roadblocks affecting the autonomy of China's nuclear power construction. In 2009, the technical breakthroughs of representative key forgings such as pressure shells, evaporators and main pipelines have been successively obtained. breakthrough.
——High-end equipment, independent innovation and fruitful results: UHV AC complete sets of equipment in the world's leading level have been safely operated on the test demonstration line for one year. The key equipment of UHV DC has been successfully put into operation at the end of 2009, and large-scale thermal power of 300,000 kW and above The proportion of unit output to the total output of thermal power units increased from 80.8% in 2008 to 82%; the self-developed large-scale open-pit mine 220-ton electric wheel dump truck was completed in 2009; three major compressions required for a million-ton ethylene plant The machine and multi-stream low-temperature cold box were successfully developed. The compressors and valves for domestic gas pipelines were finally implemented in the second phase of the West-East Gas Pipeline Project; the development of large-scale engineering machinery such as 1080-ton crawler cranes and 500-ton all-terrain cranes success.
——Although the total output of basic machinery declined, the structural optimization is now bright spot: According to the statistics of 197 key enterprises in the machine tool industry, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tool output value increased by 6 percentage points from January to September in 2009, reaching 53.6%; Machine tool output fell by 30.6% year-on-year, but the average unit price increased by 34%, CNC machine tool output fell by 13.8%, but the unit price increased by 21%. This shows the obvious upgrade momentum of machine tools.
Third, corporate restructuring tends to be active
Under the guidance of national policies, whether it is mergers and acquisitions between domestic enterprises, or “going out†to acquire foreign companies, or to develop regional industrial agglomerations, local and related enterprises have conducted many meaningful explorations under the encouragement of national policies. Corporate restructuring activities tend to be active, which will help optimize the allocation of resources and accelerate the pace of enterprises to become bigger and stronger.
Fourth, the regional structural adjustment is developing in the expected direction.
In 2009, the central and western regions and the old industrial bases in the northeast grew faster than the eastern coastal areas. This trend is quite gratifying.
6. Expanding investment and achieving results, rapid growth of fixed asset investment
In 2009, the machinery industry completed a total of 146.432 billion yuan in fixed assets investment (including Jian'an accounted for 46.43%, equipment accounted for 44.21%), an increase of 38.44%, an increase of much higher than the national manufacturing (26.8%).
(2) There are many problems in the development of the industry, and there are still many outstanding problems in the development of the industry.
First, the pace of "strengthening the foundation" must be accelerated.
For example, although the development of large-scale castings and forgings has progressed, it has not yet entered a stable production stage, and it is necessary to continue the process technology research to make the yield and cost in a controllable state. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to increase efforts on the requirements of the “solid foundation†of the key requirements of the plan.
Second, the environment for high-end equipment localization is still not ideal.
The outstanding performance is that the phenomenon of discriminating domestically produced equipment in equipment bidding is still common; users insist that domestically produced mainframes must use their designated imported parts and materials; over-price reduction of domestically produced equipment in equipment procurement; exaggeration of publicity in the process of localization Winding and problems; increasing the difficulty of localization with unrealistic requirements higher than the international standard of similar products, and so on.
Third, the demand growth of many key products has dropped significantly.
The growth rate of demand for key products such as power generation equipment, metal rolling mills and metallurgical equipment has dropped significantly. This is a signal worthy of vigilance. It shows that with the impact of the financial crisis as a trigger point, the machinery industry has entered a difficult position to rely on the rapid growth of traditional product demand to support the development. New stage. In the future, we must accelerate the pace of industrial restructuring and upgrading to expand the growth space of the industry.
Fourth, the import and export situation is still very serious.
In 2009, the machinery industry earned a total of US$195.8 billion in foreign exchange exports, down 19.25% from the previous year. The import use of foreign exchange was US$180.9 billion, a decrease of 7.14% over the previous year. The decline in imports was significantly less than that of the same period. The import and export surplus dropped sharply from US$476.69 billion in the previous year to US$14.9 billion, highlighting the weakness of China’s weak international competitiveness. Although the decline in exports began to narrow from September 2009, the monthly export value has not been effectively enlarged, and has not reached the monthly average of US$22 billion in the second and third quarters of 2008. It can be seen that the external demand market has not really recovered, and it must not be blindly optimistic.
Fifth, accounts receivable remain high
From January to November 2009, the company's finished product funds only increased by 1.88% year-on-year, which was much lower than the growth rate of industrial output during the same period (14.09%), indicating that machinery companies have generally increased their internal management and compressed their inventory. Significant results were achieved; however, the enterprises that compressed accounts receivable were obviously unable to do so. Although they increased their debts, they still increased by 18.19% year-on-year, which was much higher than the growth of production and sales over the same period. This shows that the external environment of enterprises is still quite severe.
Therefore, although the machinery industry has achieved double-digit growth in 2009, we must not be blindly optimistic, but must increase our sense of urgency and continue to increase our efforts to meet the challenges.
Second, the economic operation prospect of machinery industry in 2010
(I) Analysis of economic operation environment in 2010
From the domestic demand market, the central government has clearly stated that it will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. It is expected that the economy is expected to continue its momentum of rapid rebound at the end of last year, and domestic demand, including machinery products, is expected to rebound rapidly. Under the background of more emphasis on structural adjustment, the demand for equipment upgrade will be more urgent. This trend is a long-term positive for the growth of domestic demand in the machinery industry.
From the perspective of the external demand market, the world's major economies have begun to bottom out, the foreign trade market is expected to stop falling, and there will be recovery growth. At the same time, due to the low base in the previous year, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to be higher; International trade protectionism has risen and continues to expand and spread. Therefore, it is not too optimistic about export growth. It is expected that exports will not recover to the 2008 level.
From the perspective of macroeconomic policy, although the tone of the macro-control policy orientation has not changed, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the economic situation and the resulting "flexibility" and "targeting" of policy adjustments.
From the perspective of industrial policy guidance, the rules for supporting policies in the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry adjustment and revitalization plan are still being introduced one after another, and the machinery industry will benefit from it. In addition, the implementation of the VAT transition policy has already and will continue to mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties to purchase machinery and equipment, and is also conducive to the reduction of fixed asset investment costs by machinery companies themselves. In general, the orientation of industrial policy in 2010 has shifted from “guaranteeing growth†to “adjusting structureâ€, and there must be sufficient mental preparation for this.
From the perspective of factor supply, with the tightening of coal-electricity oil supply capacity and general price increases, the prices of major raw materials have reappeared; as the central bank once again began to raise the deposit reserve ratio and the central bank rate, corporate fund-raising costs are also Will enter the ascending channel; in addition, labor costs are also on the rise.
From the technical point of view of growth rate calculation, in the first half of 2009, due to the financial crisis, the growth rate of major economic indicators has been relatively low, so the growth rate in the first half of this year is relatively easy to increase; similarly, the growth rate in the second half of the year It is easy to fall back.
(II) Forecast of economic operation trend of machinery industry in 2010
First, although the total demand has risen steadily, but due to the excessive growth of production capacity in the whole industry, the competition will be more intense, and the competitive pressure felt by enterprises will continue to increase.
Second, the total production and sales of the whole industry will continue to grow steadily on the basis of the previous year; however, due to excessive competition, the growth rate of benefits may be lower than that of production and sales.
Third, the growth rate at the beginning of the year is relatively high, and may even be higher than 50%. However, it will gradually fall back after that, and the annual growth rate curve will show an obvious trend of “before high and then lowâ€.
(III) Forecast of development speed in 2010
It is expected that the main economic indicators of the machinery industry in 2010 are expected to achieve steady growth:
The growth rate of production and sales is expected to reach about 15%;
The profit growth rate is expected to reach about 10%;
The growth rate of foreign exchange earned by exports can reach about 15%.
The year 2010 is the last year of implementing the 11th Five-Year Plan and the year for laying the foundation for the 12th Five-Year Plan. The machinery industry must resolutely implement the five "more attention" requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, accelerate the pace of structural adjustment and transformation of development mode, further enhance the vitality and momentum of economic growth, and strive to achieve steady and rapid development of the machinery industry.
Rubber Vulcanization Accelerator,Natural Rubber Accelerator,Rubber Compounding Accelerator,Rubber Ingredients
Meikewote Trade Co., Ltd. , http://www.rubber-auxiliarys.com