Overall good prospects are bumpy - prospects for China's export situation in 2010
2018-11-03 15:03:14
The General Administration of Customs released the 2009 China foreign trade export data on January 10. From the perspective of the whole year, China’s exports have gone through an unprecedentedly difficult year; but from the single month of December, China’s exports are on the road to recovery. Looking forward to 2010, China's export prospects can be summarized as follows: the overall improvement is good, and the road ahead is bumpy.
Chinese exports are "injured"
When the once-in-a-century financial crisis hit, the first "injured" was China's exports. The most serious "injured" was China's exports.
A graph can clearly illustrate this: in October 2008, China's exports increased by 19% year-on-year, and suddenly fell to -2.2% in November. Time has entered 2009, the decline has expanded from single digits to double digits, reaching -26.5% in May, setting the lowest monthly value of the year. When the Asian financial crisis 10 years ago, China’s foreign trade exports were once hit hard, but foreign trade exports still achieved a 0.5% growth. In 2009, China’s exports fell by 16%, the lowest point since the reform and opening up. The annual trade surplus was US$196.07 billion, a decrease of 34.2%.
A stone stirred up a thousand waves. The chill of exports quickly affected industrial production, which in turn affected corporate profits and fiscal revenues. A group of enterprises stopped production and sales fell, and a large number of migrant workers returned to their hometowns. "From the whole year, regardless of the large decline in exports or the sharp decline in the trade surplus, it shows that the impact of the international financial crisis is unprecedented and has a negative effect on China's economic growth." Deputy Director of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Affairs of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China Minister Zhao Jinping said.
Slowly recovering from the difficulties
Face tax rebate rate, help small and medium-sized enterprises solve financing difficulties, help export enterprises expand into emerging markets... The majority of enterprises take action: do everything possible to keep orders, and look internally to promote domestic sales...
There is a reward for paying. After three consecutive quarters of decline, China’s exports finally recovered at the end of the third quarter of 2009, and the decline began to narrow. In September, exports fell by 15.3%, and the decline in October narrowed to 13.8%. In November, it narrowed further to single digits, a decrease of 1.2%.
According to the latest customs data, China’s exports in December 2009 increased by 17.7% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate has achieved positive growth for the first time since November 2008. Even more gratifying is that the export value reached 130.73 billion US dollars, the fourth highest monthly export value in history. “Exports turned positive year-on-year and total exports returned to pre-crisis levels, mainly due to three factors.†Liu Nenghua, a researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that first, the world economy is gradually recovering, and foreign sellers have the incentive to carry out inventory replenishment; In some developed countries, the unemployment rate has dropped, and consumption will increase appropriately. Third, the lower base in the same period of last year is conducive to the year-end negative growth of exports at the end of 2009.
Zhao Jinping said that China's policies to actively promote foreign trade also contribute to the recovery of exports, making China's exports fall far less than other trading countries, and have played a positive role in promoting global economic and trade recovery.
The road to recovery is uneven
In December 2009, China's imports and exports both showed strong growth. The monthly import value set a record high, and the monthly export value ranked the fourth highest in history, which indicates that foreign trade is accelerating recovery. "In 2010, China's exports will return to around 15% growth." Liu Nenghua believes that China's exports are generally good, and affected by the base factor, the growth rate will be high and low. The launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the gradual recovery of international demand, and the continuity and stability of external demand policies will help foreign trade achieve moderate growth.
Zhao Jinping’s judgment is relatively cautious. He expects China’s exports to increase by about 10% in 2010. "In the future, the global economy is only a recovery growth, and it is impossible to return to the pre-crisis level in the short term." Zhao Jinping analyzed that the complexity of the international economic situation and the uncertainty of international demand are still the main problems facing China's exports. . The pressure of trade protectionism and the appreciation of the renminbi will also complicate China’s export situation. "Promoting steady growth of exports and promoting balance of payments". The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2009 set the tone for the 2010 foreign trade policy. In the haze that the international financial crisis has not yet dispersed, China’s exports are facing a “breaking outâ€. "As long as there is no major change in the domestic and international situation, it is entirely possible for China's foreign trade to achieve recovery in 2010." Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said that while stabilizing export growth, China will make great efforts to adjust its trade structure and transform its development. Ways to improve the quality of export goods, from the expansion of quantity to the improvement of quality.
Chinese exports are "injured"
When the once-in-a-century financial crisis hit, the first "injured" was China's exports. The most serious "injured" was China's exports.
A graph can clearly illustrate this: in October 2008, China's exports increased by 19% year-on-year, and suddenly fell to -2.2% in November. Time has entered 2009, the decline has expanded from single digits to double digits, reaching -26.5% in May, setting the lowest monthly value of the year. When the Asian financial crisis 10 years ago, China’s foreign trade exports were once hit hard, but foreign trade exports still achieved a 0.5% growth. In 2009, China’s exports fell by 16%, the lowest point since the reform and opening up. The annual trade surplus was US$196.07 billion, a decrease of 34.2%.
A stone stirred up a thousand waves. The chill of exports quickly affected industrial production, which in turn affected corporate profits and fiscal revenues. A group of enterprises stopped production and sales fell, and a large number of migrant workers returned to their hometowns. "From the whole year, regardless of the large decline in exports or the sharp decline in the trade surplus, it shows that the impact of the international financial crisis is unprecedented and has a negative effect on China's economic growth." Deputy Director of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Affairs of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China Minister Zhao Jinping said.
Slowly recovering from the difficulties
Face tax rebate rate, help small and medium-sized enterprises solve financing difficulties, help export enterprises expand into emerging markets... The majority of enterprises take action: do everything possible to keep orders, and look internally to promote domestic sales...
There is a reward for paying. After three consecutive quarters of decline, China’s exports finally recovered at the end of the third quarter of 2009, and the decline began to narrow. In September, exports fell by 15.3%, and the decline in October narrowed to 13.8%. In November, it narrowed further to single digits, a decrease of 1.2%.
According to the latest customs data, China’s exports in December 2009 increased by 17.7% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate has achieved positive growth for the first time since November 2008. Even more gratifying is that the export value reached 130.73 billion US dollars, the fourth highest monthly export value in history. “Exports turned positive year-on-year and total exports returned to pre-crisis levels, mainly due to three factors.†Liu Nenghua, a researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that first, the world economy is gradually recovering, and foreign sellers have the incentive to carry out inventory replenishment; In some developed countries, the unemployment rate has dropped, and consumption will increase appropriately. Third, the lower base in the same period of last year is conducive to the year-end negative growth of exports at the end of 2009.
Zhao Jinping said that China's policies to actively promote foreign trade also contribute to the recovery of exports, making China's exports fall far less than other trading countries, and have played a positive role in promoting global economic and trade recovery.
The road to recovery is uneven
In December 2009, China's imports and exports both showed strong growth. The monthly import value set a record high, and the monthly export value ranked the fourth highest in history, which indicates that foreign trade is accelerating recovery. "In 2010, China's exports will return to around 15% growth." Liu Nenghua believes that China's exports are generally good, and affected by the base factor, the growth rate will be high and low. The launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the gradual recovery of international demand, and the continuity and stability of external demand policies will help foreign trade achieve moderate growth.
Zhao Jinping’s judgment is relatively cautious. He expects China’s exports to increase by about 10% in 2010. "In the future, the global economy is only a recovery growth, and it is impossible to return to the pre-crisis level in the short term." Zhao Jinping analyzed that the complexity of the international economic situation and the uncertainty of international demand are still the main problems facing China's exports. . The pressure of trade protectionism and the appreciation of the renminbi will also complicate China’s export situation. "Promoting steady growth of exports and promoting balance of payments". The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2009 set the tone for the 2010 foreign trade policy. In the haze that the international financial crisis has not yet dispersed, China’s exports are facing a “breaking outâ€. "As long as there is no major change in the domestic and international situation, it is entirely possible for China's foreign trade to achieve recovery in 2010." Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said that while stabilizing export growth, China will make great efforts to adjust its trade structure and transform its development. Ways to improve the quality of export goods, from the expansion of quantity to the improvement of quality.
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