Polysilicon price analysis and market outlook

The bottoming out of polysilicon prices in late 2012 was not without reason. By the end of December 2012, the price had dropped to a low of 115.125 million yuan per ton. However, by early January 2013, prices for various types of polysilicon photovoltaic products began to rise again. Initially, single-crystal silicon saw a quick rebound, and within weeks, the entire supply chain experienced a broad price increase. Silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules all saw rising prices. Several factors contributed to this upward trend: First, recent domestic anti-dumping measures and reduced production from some downstream companies led to supply shortages across the industry. At the same time, strong demand from Japan and China further supported the price recovery. Second, expectations of anti-dumping actions and a shift in supply and demand dynamics were key drivers. Demand was on the rise, while polysilicon producers remained constrained due to production shutdowns, creating a short-term supply gap that allowed prices to recover. Although increased module shipments were driven by higher demand, overcapacity issues still persisted. To address these challenges, the State Council held a meeting emphasizing structural adjustments and technological upgrades in the solar industry. The government encouraged mergers and acquisitions and aimed to phase out outdated production capacity. During the 2013 National Energy Work Conference, it was announced that the country would focus on expanding distributed photovoltaic power generation, targeting an annual installation of 10 million kilowatts. These policies are expected to drive consolidation within the industry, with more than one-third or even half of companies likely to merge or restructure. As major players integrate, they may reduce excess capacity, further supporting polysilicon prices. Third, in the first quarter of 2013, China imposed anti-dumping duties ranging from 30% to 50% on imports from the U.S. and South Korea. This raised production costs for some manufacturers, prompting preventive purchasing activities that helped stabilize and gradually increase polysilicon prices. Fourth, during the Spring Festival holiday, many domestic solar manufacturers continued operations to fulfill urgent global orders, leading to higher product prices. In addition, despite the overall drop in import prices, the U.S. remained the largest source of polysilicon imports. According to the latest customs data, China imported 6,791 tons in January 2013—an increase from the previous month but down 12% year-on-year. The average import price fell sharply to $18.47 per kg, a 11.58% decrease from December 2012 and 41.5% lower compared to 2012. South Korea, the U.S., and Germany accounted for 89.9% of total imports, with the U.S. alone contributing 53.4%. The U.S. import price remained the lowest at $14.70/kg, hitting a record low. Overall, the polysilicon market is showing signs of stabilization and potential long-term recovery.

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