Rebar falling space is expected to stabilize and rebound

The rebar has been sluggish for a long time. After July, the main contract will gradually shift from the current 1210 contract to the 1301 contract. Currently, it is still the premium of the far month contract, and the positions show a rise in lightening positions and a decrease in the increase in positions, indicating that the empty side still remains. Dominant. However, the author believes that in the short term there will be limited space for rebar, and it is expected to stabilize in July.

First, iron ore swaps show that ore prices are near support. Judging from the SGX forward contract price, the ore price in the next three years will show a discount and unilateral downtrend, indicating that the market is not optimistic about the future trend of ore prices. However, from the settlement price of the SGX contract in recent months, the price of ore is strong at US$120. It was pulled up again after breaking the US$120 in July 2010. In November, it again challenged the US$120 mark. At that time, the steel price once again created. The new low, but the ore still did not break this pass, forming a bottom divergence of ore and steel prices, indicating that the 120 US dollars ore price is an effective support. The cost of 120 yuan for the corresponding steel price is 3900 yuan/ton. From this point of view, if the ore price forms a support at $120, there may be limited exploration of steel prices in the short term.

Second, actual demand is not too sluggish. The data in recent months shows that steel production has been relatively stable and at a relatively high level, but stocks have gradually decreased since March. Despite the recent recovery, it is able to absorb new monthly production, indicating that market demand is better than expected. Real investment in real estate in June amounted to RMB 839.7 billion, an increase of 11.76% year-on-year; railway and road transportation investment also witnessed significant increases. With the gradual easing of funds and the acceleration of policy stimulus infrastructure construction, demand is expected to be boosted and inventory will fall again.

Again, seasonal fluctuations in steel prices indicate a rebound in July. Judging from the seasonal fluctuations of steel prices in recent years, the probability of rising in July is relatively large, reaching nearly 90%. Since the data at the end of the month are selected, it also shows that in the absence of consideration of Other factors, in view of the volatility of steel prices alone, it is easy to form a rebound in July. However, taking into account the current macroeconomic slowdown, we cannot expect too much room for rebound.

Finally, CPI data shows that it is difficult for steel prices to reverse their trend. First of all, after statistical calculation, the correlation coefficient between steel price and CPI is as high as 0.68, indicating that steel prices can refer to the trend of CPI. The influence of hikes on CPI is obvious. Judging from this year's situation, the impact of this factor will be in a downward path before November of this year. With the weakening of the world economy and the fall of commodities, the transmission of PPI to the later stage of CPI will gradually become apparent. Therefore, throughout the year, the CPI will remain at a relatively low level. At the beginning of the year, the government has set a target of control within 4%, and the difficulty of completion should be small. If the CPI is used to analyze the trend of steel prices, the center of gravity of steel prices will decline this year and will remain low for a long period of time. If there is no large-scale investment, it is difficult for steel prices to reverse their trends, but only to rebound. treat.