Current PV industry chain market trends and technology development prediction

At the beginning of this month, regarding the hot issues of photovoltaic technology development and single polycrystalline competition in 2017, Lu Jinbiao, vice president of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., interviewed distributed photovoltaic magazines, and made many questions on the market trend and technological development of the industrial chain. Interpretation. The full text of the interview was published in the magazine.

Q: There have been a lot of debates about single polycrystals recently. What is GCL as a polycrystalline pie?
Lu Jinbiao:
It is said that GCL is a polycrystalline school, mainly because our company, GCL-Poly, has made a large number of polysilicon wafers. Last year's production and sales volume was 17.5 GW, mainly polycrystalline.
In fact, the current domestic mainstream PV companies, the number is derived from polycrystalline, the main products are polycrystalline, but also a small amount of single crystal. Chinese companies have experienced the development potential of polycrystalline since they entered PV 10 years ago, including our GCL-Poly, which made polysilicon raw materials 11 years ago and entered silicon wafers in 2009. The planned technical route at that time was single polycrystalline 7: 3, single crystal is 70% of the big head, but in the process of capacity expansion, the formation of nearly 20 GW of single crystal only one more giwi, mainly polycrystalline. This so-called faction problem is not an issue of active standing. Our feelings are the result of the joint development of the crystalline silicon technology industry and the choice of the photovoltaic market.
As far as the technical genre is concerned, we believe that there is no high score. I have seen a lot of single polycrystalline technical indicators competition, efficiency, attenuation, and each word. There are also many comparative experiments, data for ten or twenty years, to see who is generating more electricity. In fact, these are not important. What matters is the real choice of the market, what is the price of your components, and how stable the quality is. I especially agree that there is a point of view. Single polycrystalline mainly depends on the cost performance, and the investment cost of the 25-year power generation cycle. . It used to be said that high efficiency and high efficiency are high-end technologies. Actually, it depends on the cost. The battery efficiency on the satellite is as high as 30% or more, but the cost is extremely high. That is for the sake of scientific research, and the photovoltaic power generation will eventually enter the life of the people at a low price. of. At present, everyone's consensus is that regardless of the single crystal polycrystal, the key to see the brand, quality, look at your cost control level and the price of the components provided, your price determines the power plant investment cost under the same power generation, you The cost control of a component chain determines whether you can continue to provide cost-effective photovoltaic power generation equipment.

Question: How do you see a war of words like single poly?
Lu Jinbiao:
"Spoken War" gives people a bad feeling, but there is also a need to exist. First of all, in the domestic photovoltaic industry, the single crystal is very weak. Through propaganda, it is supported by national policies, and it enters photovoltaics outside some industries or traditional energy fields. Investors, through the simple logic of "high efficiency is high technology" to select single crystals, in the polymorphic almost unified world, it is certainly beneficial to maintain the technical ecology. At the same time, the development of single crystal will also promote polycrystals. For example, in 16 years, the single crystal full-change diamond wire cutting has been greatly reduced. In the call of “single crystal instead of polycrystalline”, polycrystalline can not adhere to the traditional sand cutting.
Of course, we advocate that the technical aspect should be scientific and rigorous, and seek truth from facts, at least one thing: "If you don't speak a word, you can tell the truth." Do not rely on the station team, by exaggerating propaganda and misleading policies, misleading investment, which will bring waste of resources. In addition, the dispute between the two sides, even if it is a war of words, as long as it is not a personal attack, it should be open and fair, and do not use media relations to take such extreme measures as deleting.

Q: It may be that the "spoken war" is playing more. When everyone sees it, it is annoying?
Lu Jinbiao:
Really annoying. But I agree with one point of view that "spoken war" is better than deleting, and we must believe in the public's judgment.
In addition, I have to say one more thing. The reason why the "spoken war" is flying all over the sky is that the media has been contributing to the big factors. As a media, I will understand how much disputes will be little excitement. I understand, but as the media, including the media, or have a minimum of professional ethics, you can have your own point of view, but do not choose to stand for the media relationship, or even act as a thug. Including some formal market analysis and title party rampage, information asymmetry will mislead all parties.

Q: Recently, the single crystal is very hot, the price is firm, and it is out of stock, and the polycrystalline seems to have gone down the price. What do you think?
Lu Jinbiao:
The decline in the price of photovoltaic products is the norm. In the past ten years, including the future, until the arrival of PV parity, the industry is constantly improving and reducing costs. The overall price is falling. The overall production capacity is always over-reduced and backward. Of course, it often appears in the year. Quarterly or even monthly fluctuations. Nowadays, polycrystalline crystals still dominate the market. Bloomberg New Energy's data is still more than 70% of polycrystalline, so polycrystalline fall is following the general trend, very normal situation.
Single polysilicon chips started to rise in price at the beginning of the year. Polycrystalline silicon chips began to fall in the second half of last month. At present, they have fallen below 5 yuan and went straight to 4 yuan. However, we have seen that monocrystalline silicon wafers have not fallen, and the prices are all above 6 yuan. Mainly because of the strong price of single crystal components, the polycrystalline components are already around 2.8 yuan / watt, and the single crystal components are still 3.3-3.4, which are transmitted to the battery and silicon wafers, and the price is reduced.

Q: We have seen a material. According to professional calculations, the current technical level indicator, the price/performance ratio of single polycrystalline silicon at the silicon end is 0.6 yuan/piece, and the cost performance gap of the component end is within 0.1 yuan/watt. Why is this happening?
Lu Jinbiao:
The cost difference of single polycrystal is mainly at the silicon wafer end, and the raw material polysilicon, battery end and component end of other raw materials are not much different. The gap between the silicon wafer ends is mainly long crystal, polycrystalline is ingot, and thousands of kilograms of single furnace The amount of charge, large ingot cut small ingot, G8 furnace can cut 8X8=64 ingots, high output, low unit cost; single crystal is pull crystal, one or two hundred kilograms of furnace, cylindrical ingot can only cut one long Ingots, up to four meters long. Even if it is now Ladogan, it mainly saves the heat needed for the bottom of the crucible to fuse. In the case where the cutting is the same technology, the cost difference of single polycrystal is the long crystal cost gap.
The price/performance gap is about cost, but the market price difference is still affected by supply and demand. Why is the price of polycrystalline components, which is the main transaction volume, slipping when the overall growth of the PV installation market is not as good as the growth of PV module production? The price of single crystals is firm, mainly due to the large proportion of “photovoltaic runners” projects bidding for 16 years. The technical solution is a single crystal module, which promises to be connected to the grid before 6.30, and there are only a handful of single crystal modules available on the market.

Q: I heard that this part is not large?
Lu Jinbiao:
It is not big, 5 GW is not enough, but the single crystal production capacity is small and it needs to be released in a short time. The main bottleneck is in silicon wafers. There are few companies that make single crystals. Silicon wafers are basically digested internally. Like Jingao, monocrystalline silicon wafers have been used as battery components. For more than a decade, they have been integrated into single crystal modules. There are also enterprises that mainly do monocrystalline silicon wafers, but the components are tight, and most of them are selected to be integrated into battery components. The battery can be manufactured on the basis of a single process. The component package is indifferent to single-crystal, so now The price of silicon is high, but there is no trading volume. I heard that the original supply alliance has naturally collapsed. It is the promise that the selling price of monocrystalline silicon wafers will maintain a price difference of 0.6 yuan with polycrystalline adjustment. The difference now is up to 1.7 yuan per piece.

Q: Isn't it all expanding? I heard that GCL is 10 GW!
Lu Jinbiao:
It is all claimed. On the one hand, the profit of photovoltaic manufacturing is not high now, and cash is the first in the world; on the other hand, the industrialization of ingot-type single crystals is progressing. All of them are going to pass the 10 GW single crystal, and the people who want to build it want to say that you see the polycrystalline bosses turn to single crystal, you still hesitate! In fact, there is only one more gigawatt built there. Moreover, the Czochralski process is mainly aimed at N-type single crystals. The conversion rate of this process is much higher than that of the current P-type single crystals. The current problem is that the cost is still not coming.

Q: The single crystal is so expensive and out of stock, will it not change the purchase of polycrystalline? The price is so low and the efficiency is high enough.
Lu Jinbiao:
It is indeed changing, and the original design of the single crystal is changing. Last week, I met a power station investor, saying that at the time of last year, the single crystal manufacturer set the price of the module to be similar to that of polycrystalline. It was only 0.05 yuan/watt, less than 0.1 yuan, and he ordered 3.15 yuan with a single crystal manufacturer. The single crystal, but the other side said that the supply is tight, he decisively changed, 60 pieces of 275 watt polycrystalline components will also be 2.8 yuan / watt, but also the first line of the big factory. Of course, the front runners are all bidding, and the single crystal is designed. The technical solution after winning the bid cannot be changed. This part is a policy rigid market for single crystals.

Q: There are few single crystal components on the market. Why did the front runner project design so many single crystals?
Lu Jinbiao:
This was a mistake when setting standards in 2016. At that time, the standard for setting up single crystal, polycrystalline and thin film batteries was set. According to the "Specifications for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry" formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2015, it is 16% and 15.5 in single polycrystalline battery modules. A point is added to each of the %, and the leader of the monocrystalline battery assembly efficiency is 17%, and the efficiency of the polycrystalline battery assembly is 16.5%. In fact, the access requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are threshold standards. In order to support weak single crystals, a lower threshold has been given, and polycrystalline accounts for more than 80-90% of the market. It is hoped that some low-efficiency small enterprises will be eliminated by raising the threshold. The technology leader led by the Energy Bureau should be another idea. It is hoped that for different technologies, only a small number of advanced technologies of a similar technology can be achieved, and other capacity technologies can be upgraded. When the standard of 16.5% single crystal module was determined at that time, the corresponding battery conversion efficiency needs to reach 18.5%. A few of the few companies in the country can achieve a small amount of production capacity, and most other polycrystalline production capacity can not reach, while the single crystal component is 17%. The standards are basically available to all ready-made companies, so there is no need to invest in technology upgrades for single-crystal production. It is easy to obtain the technical score of the leader project with existing product bidding. The back passivation PERC battery technology tailored for single crystal production capacity is idle. In 2016, the 15 GW PERC capacity was only 3 GW.

Q: How is the situation now?
Lu Jinbiao:
Now the National Energy Administration is preparing to revise the single polycrystalline standard. The standard set is a few standards for single polycrystals. Other efforts are made to upgrade the technology, such as the existing single crystal capacity, not the PERC. Certainly not meeting the standard. Polycrystalline is also the same, only a few production capacity standards, driving other capacity also develop PERC battery technology.

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