Looking at 2019 PV from the first batch of affordable projects: will change
In 2019, the industry's development keyword was “Affordable Internet Accessâ€. After the top three policies were finalized, the list of the first batch of wind power and photovoltaic emission price online projects in 2019 was fixed, in 2019 issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau. In the first batch of notifications on wind power and photovoltaic level price online projects, 56 wind power projects, 168 photovoltaic power generation, and 26 distributed transaction pilots, totaling 250, were announced, with a total installed capacity of 20.76 million kilowatts.
Among them, the photovoltaic emission level price project is 14.78GW, and about 4.8GW is expected to be put into operation in 2019. Since then, the photovoltaic parity online era has officially opened, and the marketization prelude has been opened.
In terms of installed capacity, Henan, Shaanxi, and Guangxi are among the top three in the list, while Jilin, Henan, and Heilongjiang are at the forefront of the Internet. Judging from the number of projects (pilots), Liaoning is leading the way, and Jilin will further strengthen the wind level price online pilot project. In terms of geographical distribution, the Northeast region will occupy a favorable position in the field of renewable energy consumption and utilization in 2019.
In terms of distributed power generation pilots, wind power and photovoltaic power generation transactions in the pilot area rose to 26 in 2019, with an additional scale of 1.47 million kilowatts and a total quota of 1.65 million kilowatts. Among them are Hubei (Tianmen City, Jingmen City), Henan (Hebi City, Zhangzhou City, Lancao County), Shanxi (Yuncheng City, Zhangzhou City), Heilongjiang (Harbin City), Tianjin, Jiangsu (Suzhou City, Changzhou City, Yancheng City, Haimen City, Jiangyin City, Jiangzhou District of Taizhou City, Ningxia (Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base), Hebei (Baoding City, Handan City, Wu'an City), Shaanxi (Yulin, Weinan City), Anhui (Chizhou City, Tongling City, Maanshan City).
Among the first batch of affordable projects, it is estimated that the PV parity project to be put into operation in 2019 will be about 4.8 GW, and in 2020, it will be connected to 9 GW, and from 2021 to 2023, it will be about 0.9 GW. Among the first batch of PV parity projects, about 0.16GW was converted to a parity online project by 2019.
In addition, some insiders believe that in the "Notice", "the follow-up demonstration of affordable online projects with construction conditions can continue to be submitted", so it is not excluded that the second batch and the second batch will be announced in the second half of 2019 and 2020. The possibility of three batches, 2019, the affordable Internet project implemented in 2020 is likely to be more than 14.78GW.
It can be seen from the above data that the scale of PV parity projects exceeds expectations, and most of them are expected to be connected to the grid in 2020, supporting the growth of domestic installed capacity next year. After the announcement of the first batch of affordable projects, it is expected that the Energy Bureau's management measures for bidding projects will be launched in the near future. Project declaration, sequencing and indicator allocation are expected to be completed in June. The third quarter will start construction on a large scale, from the fourth quarter to next year. Construction peaks, domestic demand will be released as scheduled in the second half of the year. Wind power and photovoltaic industry will usher in a wave of rushing.
There are indications that the era of renewable energy parity online has been opened. According to public information, the average construction cost of wind power and photovoltaic power plants put into operation in 2017 is 18.9% and 44.8% lower than that of five years ago. With the large-scale development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation and the rapid advancement of technology, some regions have basically met the conditions of parity with coal-fired benchmarks.
However, from the current situation, there is not much room for the decline in technology costs. In order to achieve a cheaper Internet access, more energy should be placed on non-technical costs in terms of cost reduction. From the perspective of consumption, wind power and photovoltaic power without subsidized parity will further reduce the price of customer terminals, which will further promote the wide application of renewable energy.
Under such circumstances, large-scale affordable Internet projects will appear in the future. When it becomes mainstream, the amount of subsidy projects will become less and less, and even no longer support policy. This also means that the direction of PV wind power out of policy support in 2019 has been clearly defined, through the classification management to subsidize the scale, accelerate the industry parity online.
With the introduction of policies in the second quarter, the promotion of project declarations and the strict management of stock projects, the project construction will accelerate in the third quarter, and the industry turning point is approaching. The relevant functional departments attach great importance to unsubsidized projects, which means that the competitive allocation of subsidized projects may exceed expectations, but the protection attitude for the stable development of domestic market demand has not changed. On this background, the parity Internet provides a stable development expectation for the stable market, and the incremental scale of the affordable Internet project is not limited. For the wind power and photovoltaic industries, it will greatly boost the confidence of the industry.
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