The EU's prospects for China's PV "double counter-case" preliminary ruling are not optimistic
On the 15th of this month, the EU member states' anti-dumping committee will vote on the anti-dumping and countervailing measures against Chinese photovoltaic (PV) products. According to a report by the Economic Information Daily, while the evidence supporting these "double anti-cases" is not strong, the preliminary ruling appears unlikely to be favorable for China at this stage.
In March, when the European Commission launched the automatic registration system for Chinese PV products, it stated in legal documents that the investigation team had gathered enough preliminary evidence showing that Chinese PV imports were being dumped in the EU market. It also claimed there was sufficient evidence of various subsidies provided to Chinese PV exports, including preferential loans, credit lines, and export credits from state-owned and policy banks. In terms of industrial harm, the investigation team argued that Chinese dumping and subsidies had caused “irreparable damage†to EU-related industries.
However, during interviews, the Economic Information Daily reporter found that the evidence presented by the case initiator and the EU Photovoltaic Industry Alliance Pro-sun regarding alleged dumping and illegal subsidies of Chinese PV products was weak and hard to substantiate.
A European PV company representative, who wished to remain anonymous, revealed some hidden business reasons behind the accusation of “low-cost dumping†by the PV industry. The insider explained that the PV industry operates under a unique supply chain model, where manufacturers often sign long-term contracts with upstream polysilicon suppliers for up to 10 years to mitigate risks. Once signed, the pricing is fixed or only allowed to fluctuate slightly. However, in recent years, the global spot price of polysilicon has seen dramatic swings. For instance, in early 2008, the price of polysilicon soared to $450 per kg. Some European PV companies, fearing future price hikes, locked in high prices at that time. But as the price plummeted to around $50–$100 per kg by 2009, companies with long-term contracts faced significantly higher costs compared to those purchasing from the spot market.
Additionally, the industry revealed that SolarWorld, the largest initiator of the EU PV industry alliance, itself benefits from substantial government subsidies. Despite high raw material costs, the company heavily relies on German government support. Its German factory receives an annual subsidy of 70 million euros, but its production capacity remains limited at around 300 megawatts and hasn’t improved for years. Last year’s annual report even omitted details about R&D investments, which lag far behind those of its Chinese competitors. According to insiders, even in normal market conditions, EU PV companies dependent on subsidies struggle to turn a profit.
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