The Baotou Metro Project approved by the National Development and Reform Commission was suspended by the Central Government for three months. What signal was released?

According to Caixin’s report on November 13, Inner Mongolia began to investigate the financing of large-scale infrastructure projects: the Baotou Metro project with a total investment of 30 billion yuan and less than 100 days of construction was suspended at the beginning of this month, on the grounds that the central government considered a huge amount of 30 billion yuan. The funds do not match the size of Baotou’s fiscal revenue, and it is hoped that the funds will be used more to support the development of enterprises. At the same time, a number of banking and regulators also revealed that the Metro Lines 3 and 4 of Hohhot, the capital city of Inner Mongolia, and the expressway project from Hohhot to Ordos were also suspended. The three projects involve an investment of more than 50 billion yuan. According to this, some insiders judge that in the future, the central government should consider both technology and financial risks for local rail transit projects, and the approval will be tightened. In recent years, more third- and fourth-tier cities have begun to plan or declare their own subway projects. At present, the subway planning of Xianyang, Yinchuan, Xining, Yangzhou and other cities has entered the declaration process, waiting for the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission; cities such as Tangshan, Baoding, Yantai, Zhuzhou and Jiujiang are stepping up the development of subway planning plans; There are cities such as Qinhuangdao, Zhangzhou, Mianyang and Nanchong. Some people from the Central City Development and Reform Commission believe that this is a signal that the wind direction has changed. Some scholars believe that the subway is a mass transit mode of transportation. The economic growth benefits brought by the construction are secondary. The local government regards the construction of the subway as a stimulus. The way is actually putting the cart before the horse. On this matter, Economic Observer Online published a commentary on November 16th, stating that this is the financial risk hidden by policymakers under the infrastructure boom. The following is the full text of the Economic Observer Online: After the emergency stoppage of the Baotou Metro was triggered by the local government, the Chinese government has already been wary of the hidden financial risks under the infrastructure boom. It is clear that policymakers have noticed this phenomenon. On September 1, 2016, the “Notice on Printing and Distributing the First Phase of Urban Rail Transit Construction Plan (2016-2022) issued by the National Development and Reform Commission showed that Baotou City officially became the 43rd city in China to build rail transit. . The project plans six routes with a total length of 182.5 kilometers. The total investment of the recent construction projects is 30.552 billion yuan, which is also the most popular PPP mode. However, after a year, why did the Baotou subway project, which was just started in March, be called urgently? According to relevant media reports, there are some opinions from higher-level governments, suggesting that the project should be prudently constructed. Next, the Baotou Metro project triggered a spurt of a number of underground rail infrastructure projects, and the projects that have already been approved are likely to be suspended or postponed in the future. Through the combing of this information, it can be judged that the local rail transit infrastructure heat in the past was “big dry”, and the pause button was pressed in China. The construction of rail transit by local governments and the launch of some large-scale infrastructure projects are closely related to the actual situation of the local area, the matching of fiscal revenue, and the financial leverage of PPP and borrowing. The reason why China's top executives stopped this investment “infrastructure fever” is to prevent further increase of local fiscal risks, especially when some local financial revenues and infrastructure funds need to match or even completely deviate from some projects. Is there a need for large-scale infrastructure construction in some places? Is it necessary to launch a foundation project under the current population size? Is it necessary to use the PPP model and bank lending to raise funds? Behind this, contrary to the central high-level, the overall regulation and control of "invigorating the real economy, reducing leverage, and resolving financial risks" is in the same vein. Behind the stoppage of the Baotou Metro project, it clearly conveyed an attitude of the Chinese policy makers on the regulation of infrastructure finance policies.

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