Prospects of the home market are good, guarantee housing or will soon drive furniture consumption
The Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Land and Resources, Yun Xiaosu, also said recently that the central government believes that the problem of urban housing has affected the overall situation, and it is necessary to resolve the problem of housing prices while controlling inflation. The analysis believes that such a statement means that if the market is still difficult to make positive changes in the next 3 to 6 months, it may not rule out the possibility of continued policy overweight. On April 12, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report saying that credit and asset bubbles may be forming in mainland China and Hong Kong, which may eventually burst, and real estate prices may fall sharply and affect the real economy.
Policy overweight is expected to rise again
The executive meeting of the State Council emphasized the consolidation and expansion of the effectiveness of real estate market regulation. Among them, strictly control the demand for speculative investment purchases, strive to increase market supply, stabilize market expectations, and control house prices to a reasonable level. In terms of affordable housing, the meeting emphasized that the construction of affordable housing should be effectively carried out, the implementation of the construction of affordable housing should be decomposed and implemented, and arrangements for project construction and completion plans should be made public for the supervision of the public. Pay close attention to the establishment of management systems for the construction, configuration, operation and exit of affordable housing.
As of April this year, the property market regulation has reached a critical stage of strengthening implementation. From the beginning of April, the State Council sent 8 inspection teams to carry out special inspections on the implementation of the State Council ’s real estate market regulation policies and measures in 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). On the 12th, Vice Minister of Land and Resources Yun Xiaosu, who led the inspection team to investigate the Zhejiang property market, said that the central government believes that the problem of urban housing has affected the overall situation, and it is necessary to resolve the problem of housing prices while controlling inflation .
This statement quickly attracted the attention of all parties. An unnamed developer told reporters that the regulation of housing prices has changed from an economic problem to a political one. Under the strong supervision of the central government, policy implementation will be guaranteed, and there will be great pressure on housing prices to fall in hot cities in the future. The launch of the largest property market inspection in history has been interpreted by many analysts as the central government does not want the effect of the property market regulation policy to fail, repeating the previous "wrongs".
Since April last year, the state has issued three consecutive rounds of regulation and control policies on the property market, which have been unprecedentedly rigorous, but the market still shows a situation in which both volume and price have risen. The data shows that in 2010, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country rose by 9.9%, and land sales income reached a record 2.9 trillion yuan. This is generally believed to be due to inadequate policy implementation. Yang Hongxu, director of the Comprehensive Research Department of the Shanghai Real Estate Research Institute, said yesterday that judging from the content of the executive meeting of the State Council, it is generally reiterated and emphasized, but it is worth noting that the "regulation is not relaxed" statement, that is, if the next 3 to 6 months will be effective No, the policy may continue to increase.
International agency warning bubble
In addition to the attention given by domestic high-level officials, some international financial institutions have also noted China's potential crisis. On the 12th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report saying that credit and asset bubbles may be forming in mainland China and Hong Kong, which may eventually burst. Industry insiders interpreted it as if the real estate market regulation cannot continue, the Chinese real estate market may face the risk of collapse and affect all areas of the real economy.
In fact, with regard to the rapid rise in housing prices this time, a mainstream view holds that excess liquidity is the main cause of the housing bubble. Since last year, despite the continued contraction of domestic bank credit, overseas capital has been actively invested in the domestic property market against the backdrop of the appreciation of the renminbi. The scale of private equity investment in the property market has not shrunk, and the current capital flow in the real estate market is still ample.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February of this year, real estate development companies have a source of funds of 1.2173 trillion yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%. Although the growth rate has declined, the source of funds is still relatively abundant. In January of this year, with the introduction of the "New Article Eight" led by the "Restriction of Purchase Order," the policy effect has begun to show. In March of this year, the market volume of the four first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen shrank significantly year-on-year, the land market was also relatively sluggish, and the signs of loose house prices were already very obvious. Yang Hongxu believes that in the next few months, the developer's capital will be further tightened, and more and more housing companies will be forced to promote sales.
It is worth noting that, under the premise of loose housing prices, the manifestation of the effect of regulation will depend to a large extent on the supplementary market supply. The executive meeting of the State Council stated that in addition to increasing the scale of construction of affordable housing, "we must strive to increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing, and this hand cannot be relaxed."
Rigid demand stimulates long-term optimism in the home market
Although many people hold a conservative attitude towards the future development of the home furnishing industry, some insiders believe that the home furnishing industry is a potential beneficiary of a new round of real estate regulation. A series of housing market regulation policies were introduced to combat real estate speculators. According to expert analysis, people who buy real estate buy it for appreciation and sell it afterwards. There are very few people who live in their own houses. When buying and selling houses, rough houses are more popular with the market. Therefore, real estate speculators generally do not renovate houses. It is not a customer of the home furnishing industry, so those real estate speculators cannot bring real economic benefits to the home furnishing industry. The dominant group of household consumption is those with rigid needs and those with improved housing. Their needs really affect the sales performance of the household industry.
Industry insiders predict that when the role of real estate policies becomes more apparent and housing prices begin to fall, rigid demand will be released after consumers' wait-and-see sentiment subsides. The cost that ordinary people spend on buying a house is reduced, and naturally they will invest a larger proportion in decoration. At that time, the long-term trend of the home furnishing industry is bound to improve, whether it is the home improvement market or the building materials industry, there will definitely be a "retaliatory rebound."
Affordable housing is expected to reach mid-range furniture and building materials consumption
In the past two years, real estate regulation policies and policies have been issued one after another, and the severe suppression policy will affect the sales of commercial housing. As the downstream industry of the real estate development market, the home furnishing industry's transaction status in the commercial housing market will directly affect the development of the home furnishing industry. In this case, the industry has revealed a feeling of worry. However, in the interview, the reporter found that the promotion of affordable housing has cleared the industry. As Yu Xiusu, vice chairman and secretary general of the Beijing Furniture Industry Association said, "Real estate regulation is not as terrible as imagined. The vigorous promotion of affordable housing will Reversing the situation is expected to boost household consumption. "
What kind of business opportunities can the huge-scale affordable housing construction plan bring to the home furnishing industry? In this regard, Red Star Macalline Chairman and CEO Che Jianxin analyzed: This year, 10 million affordable housing will be built nationwide. According to a 50-square-meter suite, there will be a renovation market of 500 million square meters for affordable housing in 2011.
The housing purchase cost saved by the low price of affordable housing will be converted to the purchasing power of decoration to a certain extent, driving the market demand for mid-end furniture and building materials. Although real estate regulation policies such as the National Eight Articles, the central bank's interest rate hikes, and the Beijing Article 15 have been hit hard, the transaction volume of commercial housing has dropped significantly, but with the doubling of affordable housing, the home furnishing industry is still promising. Citing the view of Wu Chenxi, chairman of TATA Wooden Door, there are more "construction" houses and fewer "investment" houses, and "residential" houses are more decorated than "investment" houses, and the big market is definitely increasing significantly.
Home furnishing enterprises adjust their strategic layout to protect housing projects
The New Deal has effectively increased the construction of affordable housing projects, and the supply of housing and affordable housing will increase substantially. Under this circumstance, many home furnishing companies are planning to seize market opportunities. Affordable housing is different from commercial housing and requires "small and refined". For this reason, many enterprises seize the characteristics of their small apartment and lay out the market in the form of "protective housing package".
"Affordable housing will account for more than half, and the fittest will survive. Everyone will adjust the product structure to meet business opportunities. The trend of fully-furnished housing is irreversible. We have established Yefeng New Company to vigorously develop this business." Jun said frankly on Weibo, "Yefeng will also integrate the supply chain, successively launch style package products, and join the service of mid-range decoration of affordable housing." In his view, a large part of the reason for setting up new companies and integrating industrial chains is to seize the market share of affordable housing.
As an important market increment, affordable housing has become a topic of great concern in the industry. As we all know, social housing is not the same as commercial housing. It is dominated by small apartments, and the purchase crowd is very strict with cost control.
Affordable housing construction will accelerate the survival of the fittest in the industry
It can be said that the real estate market was full of variables in 2011, which was confusing. First, a series of real estate control policies issued in turn at the beginning of the new year, followed by the vigorous launch of affordable housing, who will become the dominant in 2011? What is the trend of the home furnishing market in the downstream of real estate this year? During the interview, the reporter found that competition in the home furnishing industry will be more intense in 2011.
It is understood that in today's high housing prices, the state vigorously promotes affordable housing to solve the problem of "difficult housing" for low- and middle-income people. The economic income of the people involved is relatively weak. In this case, budgetary costs are for their consumption choices. Plays a big role. In this regard, Ren Cheng, the vice president of the home, pointed out that Lu Dingji, the purchasing power of the affordable housing group is relatively weak, and it has become an inevitable fact for us to sink the consumer level. In front of the country's property control, but it can effectively alleviate the benefits brought by the reduction of commercial housing. But from the current point of view, this year's market competition will be more intense, such as services, products and so on.
It is conservatively estimated that 36 million sets of affordable housing will bring at least 360 billion in the market, which is very tempting for home furnishing companies. Everyone wants to get a share of the market. The fierce market has become inevitable, and companies may face the elimination if they stand still. In 2011, the market competition became more fierce. If enterprises do not adjust to changes in the market, they may fall behind, and the survival of the fittest will become increasingly obvious.
In this regard, industry experts believe that in the face of the vigorous promotion of affordable housing, companies must have the ability to resist risks, but also have the ability to adapt to market changes, such as special product development for affordable housing. Only by sticking to the brand route and insisting on producing products with superior quality can we stand out from the incandescent competition.
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